Foresight Based on MADM-Based Scenarios’ Approach: A Case about Comprehensive Sustainable Health Financing Models

Abstract

As indicated by a worldwide common perspective about health and sustainable health systems, the health structure as a part of public health is a key theme of many societies. The future is shaped by probable future scenarios, for which dealing practically has many complications. This study is focused on the future scenarios for a comprehensive sustainable health financing model to support a superior structure for a decision and policy-making pilot for the society. This aim is followed based on multiple attribute decision making (MADM)-based scenarios using two MADM methods, step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) and weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), as a hybrid model which is the first real case study of the approach. Four main probable future scenarios are identified and selected based on experts’ viewpoints about sustainable health financing models. These scenarios include membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), dynamic basic insurance, international cooperation, and effective resources management. The process of evaluating based on the approach works as a wider picture, including all criteria and alternatives together. Sustainable medical services, empowering the private sector in both production and technology, and employing international managers took place as the top priority for considering the most applicable alternatives in the future. This structure is designed and developed in Iran’s context, and the Institute for Futures Studies in Health is the pilot of the research.

Drivers, uncertainties, and future scenarios of the Iranian health system

“…Hashemkhani Zolfani et al also state that according to the standards and principles of sustainability, health financing should be considered in any economic, social, and environmental fluctuations like changes in oil prices, other possible sanctions, population aging, etc., in their study on the future of Iran’s health financing in 2019 [ 27 ].…”

Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Techniques for Improvement Sustainability Engineering Processes

“…Bosnia and Herzegovina-Lithuania-Serbia-Malaysia [6], Lithuania-Bosnia and Herzegovina-Serbia [7], Iran-Lithuania [8], China-Lithuania [9], Malaysia-Lithuania [10], Serbia-South Africa-Lithuania-Bosnia and Herzegovina [11] and Chile-Iran-Lithuania-Australia [12]. Authors from China contributed in total eight papers, four without international collaboration [13][14][15][16] and four more in international cooperation: [9], China-USA [17], China-Pakistan [18] and Russia-China-Serbia [19].…”