Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era

Abstract

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO 2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO 2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era. Global fossil CO 2 emissions have decreased by around 2.6 GtCO 2 in 2020 to 34 GtCO 2 (Fig. 1). This projected decrease, caused largely by the measures implemented to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, is about 7% below 2019 levels, according to the analysis of the Global Carbon Project 1 on the basis of multiple studies 2-4 and recent monthly energy data. A 2.6 GtCO 2 decrease in global annual emissions has never been observed before. Yet cuts of 1-2 GtCO 2 per year are needed throughout the 2020s and beyond to avoid exceeding warming levels in the range 1.5 °C to well below 2 °C, the ambition of the Paris Agreement 5. The drop in CO 2 emissions from responses to COVID-19 highlights the scale of actions and international adherence needed to tackle climate change. The 2020 decrease in emissions masks complex dynamics and differences in countries' responses to the COVID-19 pandemic over time. In most countries, emissions decreased at the peak of the country's confinement, by on average 27% on the basis of an updated analysis of indirect data 3 (Methods). Widespread disruptions in the transport sector had the largest impact on emissions. By the end of 2020, COVID-19-related confinement measures were still acting to decrease daily emissions by around 7% below 2019 levels (Fig. 1b), with the largest share of the decrease also due to transport emissions. Here, we put the change in 2020 emissions in the context of the recent changes in fossil CO 2 emissions in the 5 yr since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015 and discuss the implications of COVID-19 for the evolution of global CO 2 emissions. We focus on fossil CO 2 emission which is the largest contributor to the rise in anthropogenic GHG. The Paris Agreement builds on the Kyoto Protocol which was adopted in 1997, with commitments for emissions reductions for 36 mostly high-income economies (Methods). This so-called ' Annex B' country group accounted for 35% of global emissions in 2019 (12.5 GtCO 2 yr −1). During the 5 yr since the Paris Agreement was adopted, emissions in the Annex B country group decreased by 0.10 GtCO 2 yr −1 (-0.8%) on average each year (mean of 2016-2019 compared to 2011-2015), with a further decrease of about 1.2 GtCO 2 (−9%) in 2020 alone due to the COVID-19 restrictions (Figs. 1 and 2).

Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP

“…As an alternative to fSST-based ERF diagnosis, some models are able to run nudged simulations where meteorological conditions (typically surface winds and temperatures) are forced to be comparable between signal and baseline. This allows for a direct, time-evolving calculation of ERF based on differences in top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance between the simulations (Chen and Gettelman, 2016;Liu et al, 2018). Although they may not capture the full range of atmospheric adjustments (Forster et al, 2016), nudged ERF calculations are sufficiently comparable to fSST-based calculations that they will be used in Covid-MIP provided they have prescribed the same emissions as described above.…”

Climate change during the COVID-19 outbreak: scoping future perspectives

“…A Paris climate agreement was made in 2015, and after 5 years, global CO 2 emissions have started to decrease. However, according to Le Quéré et al (2021), the main reason for this effect is none other than COVID-19 lockdowns/shutdowns. In the post-COVID-19 world, new and effective environmental policies need to be drawn to sustain the decline in worldwide emissions.…”

Making the COVID-19 crisis a real opportunity for environmental sustainability

“…The notion of a "window of opportunity" goes back, inter alia, to Kingdon (1984), who primarily looked at drivers of political change. He argued that a window of opportunity for political change may open up if (1) there is high attention to a problem, (2) a feasible solution is available, and (3) policy-makers have the motive and opportunity to accept it.…”