Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

Zhukovskiy, Y. L.; Batueva, Daria Evgenievna; Buldysko, Aleksandra; Gil, Bernard; Starshaia, V.V.

doi:10.3390/en14175268

Cited by 80 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…This form, firstly, is a substandard material of granite production; secondly, it fills the dump trucks transporting rock mass from the quarry to the factory in a special way, it passes through the crusher sieve (the smaller side) and the larger side will give the increased load on operation of mechanisms, etc. In other words, the form of lumps affects the parameter of bulk density, and the parameter of bulk density is very important for many processes of mining production [38,39]. -…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digitalization in Open-Pit Mining: A New Approach in Monitoring and Control of Rock Fragmentation

2021

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Mining enterprises are widely introducing digital technologies and automation is one of such tools. Granularity monitoring, namely, the size determination of rock mass pieces is a common operational component of the processes that extract minerals by open-pit mining. The article proposes an approach that, in addition to the lump size distribution, makes it possible to estimate the lump form distribution as well. To investigate the effectiveness of monitoring the form of blasted rock mass lumps, the authors conducted experiments in four stages related to the rock condition. They include geological occurrence, explosive crushing, trommelling, and mill crushing. The relationship between these stages is presented and the change in the lumps fragment form is traced. The present article proposes an informational and analytical model of the processes at mining enterprises, extracting minerals by open-pit mining, as well as an algorithm for determining the lumps form and obtaining their distribution in the rock mass.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digitalization in Open-Pit Mining: A New Approach in Monitoring and Control of Rock Fragmentation

2021

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“…The Delphi method is designed to assess the aggregate expert opinion on complex problems, potential consequences and the effectiveness of the use of cost measures. The structured opinion of a group of experts in comparison with the opinion of one specialist is a tool for further and more accurate forecasting [18,19,[27][28][29].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Risks were assessed on a nine-point scale, where 1 is the minimum risk impact; 9-the maximum impact of risk. Also in modeling, the influence of external factors was considered on the basis of scenario forecasting [18,30,31]. Given that many works noted the importance of risk assessment in the scenario forecasting based on expert evaluations, in our scenarios, we necessarily considered:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An indispensable condition for the development of the region is a reliable uninterrupted power supply to the territories, following global trends and sustainability requirements [18]. The progress in energy supply in the AZRF is determined by the global level of energy development, where a significant impact is made by the ongoing energy transition and digital transformation of energy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic

et al. 2021

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The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply, like many others, is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent, this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources, taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers, available technologies, and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios, up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas, but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers, which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition, authors’ forecasts, through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region, can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development, taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.

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“…The method for forecasting power consumption at gas industry enterprises is described in article [49]. However, in this forecasting method, the forecast of electricity consumption for enterprises with a high coefficient of unevenness of the load schedule is not considered.…”

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confidence: 99%

Method for Determining the Optimal Capacity of Energy Storage Systems with a Long-Term Forecast of Power Consumption

Senchilo

Ustinov

2021

Energies

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The unevenness of the electricity consumption schedule at enterprises leads to a peak power increase, which leads to an increase in the cost of electricity supply. Energy storage devices can optimize the energy schedule by compensating the planned schedule deviations, as well as reducing consumption from the external network when participating in a demand response. However, during the day, there may be several peaks in consumption, which lead to a complete discharge of the battery to one of the peaks; as a result, total peak power consumption does not decrease. To optimize the operation of storage devices, a day-ahead forecast is often used, which allows to determine the total number of peaks. However, the power of the storage system may not be sufficient for optimal peak compensation. In this study, a long-term forecast of power consumption based on the use of exogenous parameters in the decision tree model is used. Based on the forecast, a novel algorithm for determining the optimal storage capacity for a specific consumer is developed, which optimizes the costs of leveling the load schedule.

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Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

Cited by 80 publications

References 53 publications

Digitalization in Open-Pit Mining: A New Approach in Monitoring and Control of Rock Fragmentation

Digitalization in Open-Pit Mining: A New Approach in Monitoring and Control of Rock Fragmentation

Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic

Method for Determining the Optimal Capacity of Energy Storage Systems with a Long-Term Forecast of Power Consumption

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