Fractional SEIR Model for Modelling the Spread of COVID-19 in Namibia

Nuugulu, Samuel Megameno; Shikongo, Albert; Elago, David; Salom, Andreas T.; Owolabi, Kolade M.

doi:10.1007/978-981-33-6264-2_9

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…For example, Annas et al [6] analyzed the global stability of the classical SEIR model for COVID-19 spread in Indonesia (under the free-disease and endemic equilibriums). Nuugulu et al [25] analyzed the existence of uniqueness of solution, positivity of solution, equilibrium points, reproductive number, and stability of the fractional SEIR model for COVID-19 in Namibia (see their Eq. (9.1), which is similar to our model (1) except for (1e)), by referring to the work of Lin [19] who theoretically investigated the existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the non-negative solution of the fractional SEIR model (see the model (1) proposed by Lin [19], which is a generalized version of our fractional SEIR model (1)).…”

Section: Appendix C Mathematical Analysis Of the Fractional Seir Mode...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling COVID-19 spreading dynamics and unemployment rate evolution in rural and urban counties of Alabama and New York using fractional derivative models

Yu¹,

Zhang²,

Sun³

2021

Results in Physics

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Section: Appendix C Mathematical Analysis Of the Fractional Seir Mode...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling COVID-19 spreading dynamics and unemployment rate evolution in rural and urban counties of Alabama and New York using fractional derivative models

Yu¹,

Zhang²,

Sun³

2021

Results in Physics

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“…Apart from financial modelling, fractional calculus models have been extensively utilized in modelling diseases, see for example [18][19][20][21] just to mention but a few. In [21] a fractional calculus framework was utilized in modelling intricate interactions of CD4+ T-cells and HIV viruses to aid investigations on how HIV infections behave under certain control interventions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Robust Numerical Simulation of a Fractional Black–Scholes Equation for Pricing American Options

Nuugulu,

Gideon,

Patidar

2024

J Nonlinear Math Phys

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After the discovery of fractal structures of financial markets, fractional partial differential equations (fPDEs) became very popular in studying dynamics of financial markets. Available research results involves two key modelling aspects; firstly, derivation of tractable asset pricing models, those that closely reflects the actual dynamics of financial markets. Secondly, the development of robust numerical solution methods. Often times, most the effective models are of a nonlinear nature, and as such, reliable analytical solution methods are seldomly available. On the other hand, the accurate value of American options strongly lies on the unknown free boundaries associated with these types of derivative contracts. The free boundaries emanates from the flexibility of the early exercise features with American options. To the best of our knowledge, the approach of pricing American options under the fractional calculus framework has not been extensively explored in literature, and an obvious wider research gap still exist on the design of robust solution methods for pricing American option problems formulated under the fractional calculus framework. Therefore, this paper serve to propose a robust numerical scheme for solving time-fractional Black–Scholes PDEs for pricing American put option problems. The proposed scheme is based on the front-fixing algorithm, under which the early exercise boundaries are transformed into fixed boundaries, allowing for a simultaneous computation of optimal exercise boundaries and their corresponding fair premiums. Results herein indicate that, the proposed numerical scheme is consistent, stable, convergent with order $${\mathcal {O}}(h^2,k)$$ O ( h 2 , k ) , and also does guarantee positivity of solutions under all possible market conditions.

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“…As observed elsewhere in the global economy, lockdown measures had detrimental impacts on economic activities [9][10][11][12][13]. Some of the impacts included high levels of unemployment and shrinking economies [14,15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Threat of COVID-19 on Food Security: A Modelling Perspective of Scenarios in the Informal Settlements in Windhoek

Tawodzera

Kazembe

2023

Land

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Due to the heterogeneity among households across locations, predicting the impacts of stay-at-home mitigation and lockdown strategies for COVID-19 control is crucial. In this study, we quantitatively assessed the effects of the Namibia government’s lockdown control measures on food insecurity in urban informal settlements with a focus on Windhoek, Namibia. We developed three types of conditional regression models to predict food insecurity prevalence (FIP) scenarios incorporating household frequency of food purchase (FFP) as the impacting factor, based on the Hungry Cities Food Matrix. Empirical data were derived from the 2017 African Food Security Urban Network (AFSUN) Windhoek study and applied univariate probit and bivariate partial observability models to postulate the relation between food insecurity and FFP within the context of stay-at-home disease mitigation strategy. The findings showed that FFP was positively correlated with the prevalence of food insecurity (r = 0.057, 95% CI: 0.0394, 0.085). Daily purchases portrayed a survivalist behaviour and were associated with increased food insecurity (coeff = 0.076, p = 0.05). Only those who were purchasing food twice monthly were significantly associated with reduced food insecurity (coeff = −0.201, p = 0.001). Those households in informal settlements were severely impacted by food insecurity (coeff = 0.909, p-value = 0.007). We conclude that public health compliance should precede with cash or food support to poor households in balance with the need for long-term placement of control measures to fully contain COVID-19 or related infectious diseases.

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Fractional SEIR Model for Modelling the Spread of COVID-19 in Namibia

Cited by 5 publications

References 21 publications

Modeling COVID-19 spreading dynamics and unemployment rate evolution in rural and urban counties of Alabama and New York using fractional derivative models

Modeling COVID-19 spreading dynamics and unemployment rate evolution in rural and urban counties of Alabama and New York using fractional derivative models

A Robust Numerical Simulation of a Fractional Black–Scholes Equation for Pricing American Options

The Threat of COVID-19 on Food Security: A Modelling Perspective of Scenarios in the Informal Settlements in Windhoek

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