Framing the frame: Cause and effect in climate-related migration

Cottier, Fabien; Flahaux, Marie‐Laurence; Ribot, Jesse; Seager, Richard; Ssekajja, Godfreyb

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106016

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Thus, studies that did not focus on Africa were eliminated from the list of articles. (2) The articles must focus on both international and internal migration induced by climate change activities (as conceptualized by the study). This suggests that studies that focus on how climate change activities have resulted in the migration of people within Africa or outside Africa were included in the study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of climate change on migration has received significant attention in academic and policy circles in recent years (Chirisa and Bandauko, 2015 [1]; Cottier et al, 2022 [2]; Hoffmann et al, 2020 [3]). Current estimates suggest that Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will contribute over 85 million (four percent of its total population) to climate-induced migrants due to droughts, floodings, high temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall patterns (Rigaud et al, 2018 [4]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa

Ofori,

Bandauko,

Kutor

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Academics and policymakers have been paying close attention to the impact of climate change on migration in recent years. This phenomenon piqued interest because the factors driving environmentally induced migration are complex and manifold. Noticeably, there has been considerable scholarship on climate change and migration in Africa. However, there has not been a concerted effort to periodically review the existing literature to systematically document the state of scholarship. Using a standardized systematic review procedures to analyze 22 peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2022, we found that climate change impacts migration in many complex and multilayered forms. Beyond what has already been established in the literature on climate-related migration such as environmental effects on migration; migration as an adaptation strategy; and the influence of environmental and non-environmental factors on migration; we also found that (1) studies on climate-induced migration in Africa intensely focused on SSA, suggesting an uneven study of the region, (2) heavily affected people tend to be immobile, and (3) young people have high migration intentions due to harsh climate insecurities. These findings require urgent government and stakeholder attention. Specifically, there is a need for scholarship to interrogate the climate change–immobility nexus in order to design appropriate in situ or ex situ adaptation strategies to support lives and livelihoods.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa

Ofori,

Bandauko,

Kutor

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…Because climate change often acts indirectly on pre-existing migration systems, it is difficult to disentangle the relative impact of climate-related variables from other migration drivers. The question of causality is especially challenging for forecasting models (see Cottier et al, 2022). To date, forecasting has tended to operate under the assumption that populations are relatively fixed unless uprooted by a climate event.…”

Section: Conceptualizing Climate-related Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

Schewel,

Dickerson,

Madson

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. In some cases, populations will be displaced by natural disasters and sudden-onset climate events, such as tropical storms. In other cases, climate change will gradually influence the economic, social, and political realities of a place, which will in turn influence how and where people migrate. Planning for the wide spectrum of future climate-related mobility is a key challenge facing development planners and policy makers. This article reviews the state of climate-related migration forecasting models, based on an analysis of thirty recent models. We present the key characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of different modeling approaches, including gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics and statistical extrapolation models, and consider five illustrative models in depth. We show why, at this stage of development, forecasting models are not yet able to provide reliable numerical estimates of future climate-related migration. Rather, models are best used as tools to consider a range of possible futures, to explore systems dynamics, to test theories or potential policy effects. We consider the policy and research implications of our findings, including the need for improved migration data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and scenarios-based planning.

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“…Quantitative migration models are needed to support evidence-based policy and counteract framings of migration that generate fear and criminalize migration or falsely attribute responsibilities (Brouwer, Woude, and Leun 2017;Vezovnik 2018;Cottier et al 2022). Essentially, migration is a complex process that involves cultural, demographic, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social dimensions (Bijak 2006;Castles and Miller 2009;Haas 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic evolution model for international migration

Zantout,

Schewe

2024

Preprint

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We present a new international migration model that combines stochastic sampling techniques with dynamic accounting of flows by means of evolution equations. Migration flows are sampled from paramaterized probability distributions based on reported migration flow data that is partitioned by socio-economic covariates. This method allows for non-trivial time evolution that goes beyond extrapolation, while requiring minimal prior knowledge about the elusive processes driving migration flows. It thus combines the advantages of different existing modeling approaches. In hindcasts our model compares well with bilateral migrant stock data in many world regions and country income groups. Moreover, we observe a significant difference between the full model and its deterministic formulation, which highlights the non-Gaussian and interdependent nature of migration flow distributions and corroborates the use of a stochastic approach. Our model can be flexibly extended with additional information, e.g. regional migration policies, which are expected to further improve the agreement with data.

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Framing the frame: Cause and effect in climate-related migration

Cited by 12 publications

References 45 publications

A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa

A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa

How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

Stochastic evolution model for international migration

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