From college to the pros: predicting the NBA amateur player draft

Berri, David J.; Brook, Stacey L.; Fenn, Aju J.

doi:10.1007/s11123-010-0187-x

Cited by 55 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…More precisely, height improves the overall draft positions for players of these three positions. These results support previous research examining height and draft selection in the National Basketball Association (NBA) (Berri, Brook, & Fenn, 2011). Across all four position groups, an increase in the player's weight improves his overall selection in the draft.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

Palmer

Duhan

Soebbing

2015

JSA

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Abstract. Over the past several decades, National Football League (NFL) executives have tried to devise ways to deter off-field misconduct of its players. Since the year 2000, the NFL instituted a Personal Conduct Policy governing the actions of players already in the league. The policy was further modified in April 2007 by Commissioner Roger Goodell. The question the present research asks is what is the relationship between an amateur player's misconduct in his final year of college and his overall pick in the NFL Draft. By extension, the present research looks to see if this relationship changes with the modification of the Personal Conduct Policy. Examining the NFL Draft from 1999 through 2013, the present research finds that misconduct decreased a player's draft position meaning his draft position improved. However, the modification of the Personal Conduct Policy leads to an insignificant result suggesting that team executives are beginning to examining an amateur player's misconduct more closely with the new policy.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

Palmer

Duhan

Soebbing

2015

JSA

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“…Anthropometric measurements, determination of somatic build models, and somatic profiles have recently become fundamental research areas for sports training specialists [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ]. Somatic profiles of basketball players have been widely recognized as a crucial factor in the selection process and as a performance predictor [ 5 , 9 , 10 , 11 ]. Anthropometric characteristics, such as body fat, skinfold thickness, body height, arm span, and body circumferences, were determined to be principal components in elite basketball players; therefore, they are often regarded as indicators of the level of play [ 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropometric Variables and Somatotype of Young and Professional Male Basketball Players

Gryko

Kopiczko

Mikołajec

et al. 2018

Sports

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Background: Determining somatic models and profiles in young athletes has recently become a fundamental element in selecting basketball playing positions. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the body build of young and adult elite male basketball players at different playing positions. Methods: Participants consisted of 35 young (age: 14.09 ± 0.30 years, n = 35) and 35 adult professional basketball players (age: 24.45 ± 5.40 years, n = 35) competing in elite leagues. The anthropometric characteristics assessed included body mass, body height, skinfolds, somatotypes, girths, and breadths. Results: The centers in both age groups were significantly taller and heavier (p < 0.001) compared to forwards and guards. The greatest difference between categories were in the guards’ personal height (from 169.36 to 186.68 = 17.32 cm). The guards from the professional team were closest in height to the forwards (difference = 7.17 cm) compared to young players where the difference between guards and forwards was 13.23 cm. Young competitors were more ectomorphic (2.12-3.75-4.17), while professional players were more mesomorphic (2.26-4.57-3.04). Significant criteria for center selection at professional level seems to be personal height and arm span ratio. Conclusions: The results indicate that the selection for basketball playing positions should include the analysis of body height and mass, shoulder breadth, humerus breadth, femur breadth and specifically for centers the difference between personal the height and arm span.

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“…Massey and Thaler (2005) researched when teams find the most value in the NFL draft and found that teams often overvalue the draft's earliest picks. Berri, Brook, and Fenn (2010) analyzed which factors contribute most to the selection of college basketball players in the NBA draft as well as NBA performance. Our own analysis follows a similar process of identifying what factors best predict NFL draft results as well as future NFL performance of college players.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League

Mulholland

Jensen

2014

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

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National Football League teams have complex drafting strategies based on college and combine performance that are intended to predict success in the NFL. In this paper, we focus on the tight end position, which is seeing growing importance as the NFL moves towards a more passing-oriented league. We create separate prediction models for 1. the NFL Draft and 2. NFL career performance based on data available prior to the NFL Draft: college performance, the NFL combine, and physical measures. We use linear regression and recursive partitioning decision trees to predict both NFL draft order and NFL career success based on this pre-draft data. With both modeling approaches, we find that the measures that are most predictive of NFL draft order are not necessarily the most predictive measures of NFL career success. This finding suggests that we can improve upon current drafting strategies for tight ends. After factoring the salary cost of drafted players into our analysis in order to predict tight ends with the highest value, we find that size measures (BMI, weight, height) are over-emphasized in the NFL draft. Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football LeagueAbstract: National Football League teams have complex drafting strategies based on college and combine performance that are intended to predict success in the NFL. In this paper, we focus on the tight end position, which is seeing growing importance as the NFL moves towards a more passing-oriented league. We create separate prediction models for 1. the NFL Draft and 2. NFL career performance based on data available prior to the NFL Draft: college performance, the NFL combine, and physical measures. We use linear regression and recursive partitioning decision trees to predict both NFL draft order and NFL career success based on this pre-draft data. With both modeling approaches, we find that the measures that are most predictive of NFL draft order are not necessarily the most predictive measures of NFL career success. This finding suggests that we can improve upon current drafting strategies for tight ends. After factoring the salary cost of drafted players into our analysis in order to predict tight ends with the highest value, we find that size measures (BMI, weight, height) are over-emphasized in the NFL draft.

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From college to the pros: predicting the NBA amateur player draft

Abstract: Sports economics, Reverse-order drafts, Behavior economics, J44, L83,

Cited by 55 publications

References 27 publications

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

Anthropometric Variables and Somatotype of Young and Professional Male Basketball Players

Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League

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