From Low-Cost Flights to the Ballot Box: How Eastern European Migration Shaped Far-Right Voting in London

Abstract

Transportation and geography scholars link low-cost flights to a new type of hypermobile migration, but the political implications of this development remain poorly understood. We examine patterns of migration and far-right voting in London following the Eastern enlargement of the European Union in 2004 and 2007. We show that the distribution of migrants from this region is linked to pre-existing transport infrastructure providing access to low-cost flights back home. Combining ward-level election and census data with geo-referenced information on bus stops serving relevant airports, our instrumental variable approach addresses immigrant sorting and reveals a large positive effect on changes in support for far-right anti-immigrant parties between the 2004 and 2012 London elections. Our approach expands the methodological toolkit for studying the effects of migration. The findings challenge claims of low-cost airlines “bringing the EU closer together” and have policy implications based on the spatial predictability we uncover.