From phenology models to risk indicator analysis

Abstract

A B S T R A C TIn this paper we outline a phenology model for estimating budbreak and full bloom starting dates of sour cherry on the effective heat sums with reasonable accuracy. With the help of RegCM3.1 model the possible trends of the phenology timing in the middle of the 21st century the shift of 12-13 days earlier budbreak and 6-7 days earlier of full bloom due to the warmer weather conditions can be clearly indicated. For the climatic characterization of sour cherry bloom period in between 1984-2010 and for the description of the expected changes in this very sensitive period of sour cherry with respect to the time slice 2021-2050, we introduce seven climatic indicators as artificial weather parameters such as the numbers of days when the temperature was under 0°C and above 10 °C, the numbers of days when there was no and more than 5 mm precipitation as well as the absolute minimum, the mean of minimum and the mean of maximum daily temperatures. We survey the changes of the indicators in the examined period and, regarding the full bloom start model results, we formulate the expectations for the future and make comparisons.