Functions and failures: how to manage technological promises for societal challenges

Abstract

Technological promises are becoming part of the way in which scientific and technological communities try to attract the attention of stakeholders, aiming at legitimation, reputation, and funding. Not all promises, however, become reality. With the increase in the use of promises comes the risk of disillusion and cynicism, which may affect negatively policy-makers and the public opinion. The paper suggests that the introduction in the field of S&T and innovation policy of a tool commonly used in engineering fields aimed at identifying and measuring all possible failures of a proposed technology. Instead of focusing on the magnitude of promises, it suggests that a useful perspective can be gained by placing systematic attention to the negative side, i.e. all reasons why a given technology may fail to deliver the promises. The paper develops the methodology, presents a case study, and illustrates the benefits of using it in policy-making

Functional technology foresight. A novel methodology to identify emerging technologies

“…In cases where the information are hidden or less codified than in the medical or biomedical field, the functional approach can be used as well, but the exploitation of the Big Data with text mining tools has to be substituted with other techniques as shown in [29].…”

“…In the same way the study of functions allows to highlight the presence of hidden negative functions that can undermine the potential of certain otherwise successful technologies (see [29] for a comprehensive application of failure analysis techniques to Foresight and for a case study in the textile industry). The possibility to spot hidden failures in advance is a powerful antidote to contrast the effects of hype, excessive expectations and even of vested interests in the decision making process.…”

Value creation in emerging technologies through text mining: the case of blockchain

“…Indeed, few studies systematically approach the extraction of problems or disadvantages associated with emerging technologies. In the effort to anticipate disadvantages and failures, Apreda et al (2014Apreda et al ( , 2019 suggest to systematically apply FMECA and Functional Analysis, methodologies drawn from engineering design. While they significantly mitigate the cognitive distortions of decisionmakers such as desirability bias and overconfidence (Bonaccorsi, Apreda, and Fantoni 2020), for the time being, they have not been subject to automatic processing in texts.…”

Can hype be a force for good?: Inviting unexpected engagement with science and technology futures

“…Advocates in science and technology foster expectations and visions of the future (hype) to build support and resources. The promises made through these narratives of scientific and technological progress are ‘by definition, a projection into the future of a desired state of affairs, [and are] associated with a commitment to deliver this state’ (Apreda et al., 2014: 370). Committing to visions of the future continues to be a central part of the communicative ecosystem of science and technology.…”

“…In this ecosystem, success depends on projecting a clear and compelling vision of the future while shortening timeframes for delivery (Brown and Michael, 2003; Geels and Smit, 2000). The futures promised during efforts to secure social and financial are highly uncertain and hype emerges (Apreda et al., 2014; Latour, 1987). Here, hype plays a performative role with ‘breakthrough’ narratives working as ‘strategic resources to enrol allies and secure resources’ (Samuel et al., 2015: 55).…”