Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Janković, Aleksandar; Podraščanin, Zorica; Djurdjević, Vladimir

doi:10.28974/idojaras.2019.3.6

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The threshold temperature, tb, is 5 °C for the cold-tolerant and 10 °C for the thermophile species (Lakatos et al, 2013b); we use the lower one in the current study. AAT is calculated in units called degree-days, °D (see Janković et al, 2019).…”

Section: Agrometeorological Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the high-level synthesis report of the United Nations, titled 'United In Science' (https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/unitedinscience), the climate change is the defining challenge of our time. The globally averaged surface temperature of the Earth increased 0.85 °C over the 1880 to 2012 period (Janković et al, 2019). The climate change will exert influence on the ecosystems, on all branches of the international economy, and on the quality of life.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of agrometeorological indices over Southeast Europe in the context of climate change (1961-2018)

Chervenkov¹,

Slavov²

2021

Időjárás

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The regional response over Southeast (SE) Europe to the climate warming in global and continental scales has been confirmed to have essential impact on the agriculture and forestry since the middle of twentieth century. Normal variations in weather throughout a growing season cause variations in harvest and, generally, the impact could be large in terms of production amounts and economic returns. Agriculture is sensitive to the changes in weather and climate, and the occurrence of extreme events threaten the agricultural systems. Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. This study provides an overview of the spatial patterns and the long-term temporal evolution of the following agrometeorological indices: growing season length, accumulated active temperatures and biologically effective degree days. Hence the focus is on the Growing season length, its start and end dates are analyzed separately. All indices are computed from the daily mean temperatures which, in turn, are derived from the output of the MESCAN-SURFEX system analysis of the collaborative initiative UERRA. The geographical domain of interest is Southeast Europe, and the assessment is performed at a very high spatial resolution on annual basis for the period 1961–2018. We find strong evidences of essential increase in the considered indices which dominates spatially over the low-elevated areas of the domain and is statistically significant at 5% level. Key message is also the revealed asymmetry of the increase in the most relevant index, the growing season length: its total lengthening is linked more to the shifting to earlier date of the start, rather than to its later cessation.

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Section: Agrometeorological Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of agrometeorological indices over Southeast Europe in the context of climate change (1961-2018)

Chervenkov¹,

Slavov²

2021

Időjárás

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“…The changes in energy use highlight the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Since the existing climate zones may change in the future [48], as well as heating and cooling degree days [49,50], any new or updated regulation should consider these changes [51]. Moreover, inadequate sizing of systems could lead to energy inefficiency or discomfort.…”

Section: The Implications Of Changing Energy Needsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Are the Implications of Climate Change for Retrofitted Historic Buildings? A Literature Review

et al. 2020

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Historic buildings account for more than one-quarter of Europe’s existing building stock and are going to be crucial in the achievement of future energy targets. Although a drastic reduction in carbon emissions would slow climate change, an alteration in the climate is already certain. Therefore, the impact of climate change on retrofitted historic buildings should be considered in terms of occupants’ comfort, heritage conservation, and energy performance. Inappropriate interventions might weaken the potential of traditional climate adaptive solutions, such as thermal mass and night cooling, leading to higher risks of overheating in a warming climate. Similarly, retrofit solutions will change the moisture dynamics of historic envelopes, which might lead to moisture damages when combined with more extreme precipitation events. This paper reviews recent literature that provides evidence of climate change’s impact on retrofitted buildings, reveals potential future risks, and thereby sheds light on new factors influencing the decision-making process in the retrofit of historic buildings.

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“…These findings suggest that total residential electricity demand could potentially increase from 5% to 60%. Similarly, Jankovic et al [18] investigated the potential demand changes using cooling degree days (CDD) in Serbia at the end of the 21st century under the climatic scenario A1B (medium emissions) and A2 (high emissions). Although some limitations have been associated with the use of CDD to evaluate cooling demand in the building sector, it is widely used at both global and national levels [19,20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cooling Degree Models and Future Energy Demand in the Residential Sector. A Seven-Country Case Study

et al. 2021

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The intensity and duration of hot weather and the number of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are increasing, leading to a growing need for space cooling energy demand. Together with the building stock’s low energy performance, this phenomenon may also increase households’ energy consumption. On the other hand, the low level of ownership of cooling equipment can cause low energy consumption, leading to a lack of indoor thermal comfort and several health-related problems, yet increasing the risk of energy poverty in summer. Understanding future temperature variations and the associated impacts on building cooling demand will allow mitigating future issues related to a warmer climate. In this respect, this paper analyses the effects of change in temperatures in the residential sector cooling demand in 2050 for a case study of nineteen cities across seven countries: Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Israel, Portugal, Slovakia, and Spain, by estimating cooling degree days and hours (CDD and CDH). CDD and CDH are calculated using both fixed and adaptive thermal comfort temperature thresholds for 2020 and 2050, understanding their strengths and weaknesses to assess the effects of warmer temperatures. Results suggest a noticeable average increase in CDD and CDH values, up to double, by using both thresholds for 2050, with a particular interest in northern countries where structural modifications in the building stock and occupants’ behavior should be anticipated. Furthermore, the use of the adaptive thermal comfort threshold shows that the projected temperature increases for 2050 might affect people’s capability to adapt their comfort band (i.e., indoor habitability) as temperatures would be higher than the maximum admissible values for people’s comfort and health.

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Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Cited by 19 publications

References 20 publications

Assessment of agrometeorological indices over Southeast Europe in the context of climate change (1961-2018)

Assessment of agrometeorological indices over Southeast Europe in the context of climate change (1961-2018)

What Are the Implications of Climate Change for Retrofitted Historic Buildings? A Literature Review

Cooling Degree Models and Future Energy Demand in the Residential Sector. A Seven-Country Case Study

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