Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Molina, María Ofelia; Sánchez, Enrique; Gutiérrez, Claudia

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-65663-0

Cited by 125 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Future events of such extraordinary duration, amplitude, and frequency will impose conditions that will challenge human health and societies with profound impacts on livestock, agriculture, and biodiversity. For the Mediterranean part of the MENA domain, our results agree with HWMId values and conclusions presented by Molina et al 47 . Their study was based on higher-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

et al. 2021

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Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

et al. 2021

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“…Yet, the most detrimental effect on yield is the exposure of crops during the reproductive stage to short episodes of high temperatures (heat wave/warm spell) [ 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 ]. Thus, the heat waves and warm spells that are predicted to increase in frequency in many regions of the world [ 7 , 52 , 53 ] pose a serious threat on global food production.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Single and Combined Salinity and Heat Stresses Impact Yield and Dead Pericarp Priming Activity

Swetha

Singiri

Novoplansky

et al. 2021

Plants

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In the face of climate change and the predicted increase in the frequency and severity of abiotic stresses (e.g., hot spell, salinity), we sought to investigate the effect of salinity (S), short episodes of high temperature (HS) and combination of salinity and high temperature (SHS), at the reproductive phase, on yield with a special focus on the properties of dead pericarps of Brassica juncea. Three interval exposures to HS resulted in massive seed abortion, and seeds from salt-treated plants germinated poorly. Germination rate and final germination of B. juncea seeds were slightly reduced in the presence of salt and SHS pericarp extracts. All pericarp extracts completely inhibited seed germination of tomato and Arabidopsis, but removal of pericarp extracts almost fully restored seed germination. Heat and salinity profoundly affected the accumulation of phytohormones in dead pericarps. Combined stresses highly reduced IAA and ABA levels compared with salt, and enhanced the accumulation of GA1, but abolished the positive effect of salt on the accumulation of GA4, JA and SA. Interestingly, pericarp extracts displayed priming activity and significantly affected seedling performance in a manner dependent on the species and on the origin of the pericarp. While control pericarps improved and reduced the seedlings’ performance of autologous and heterologous species, respectively, pericarps from salt-treated plants were harmless or improved heterologous seedling performance. Thus, the strategy employed by the germinating seed for securing resources is set up, at least partly, by the mother plant in conjunction with the maternal environment whose components are stored in the dead maternal organs enclosing the embryo.

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“…Assessing the societal impact of thermal stress is a crucial issue, especially because the intensity of heat waves in Europe is forecast to increase in the future (e.g., Collins et al ., 2013; Brown, 2020; Molina et al ., 2020). Thus, in this article, we explore the ERA5‐HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT) dataset, a global hourly gridded historical dataset (i.e., 1979–2019) of human thermal comfort indices derived from ERA5 reanalysis (Di Napoli et al ., 2020a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 41‐year bioclimatology of thermal stress in Europe

Antonescu

Mărmureanu

Vasilescu

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The bioclimatology of thermal stress over Europe between 1979 and 2019 was analysed using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5‐HEAT reanalysis. The bioclimatology of different European regions was assessed using Köppen–Geiger climate classification. The annual number of hours with heat stress (UTCI > 32°C) increased significantly during the study period for all the analysed Köppen–Geiger climate subclasses, showing also a clear increase towards southern Europe. The highest percentage of hours (20% of all hours) with cold stress (UTCI < −13°C) occur over northern Europe. A significant increasing trend (>0.05 hr·year−1) in the number of hours with heat stress was observed for 23 out of 32 analysed European cities representative for the Köppen–Geiger climate subclasses. For these cities not only the number of hours with heat stress has increased but also the heat stress is more persistent, while the number of cases and the persistence of the periods with cold stress have decreased over the last four decades. The UTCI values showed a statistically significant increase between 0.6 and 3.2°C for all the analysed cities over the study period reflecting the rising of global mean temperatures.

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Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Cited by 125 publications

References 72 publications

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

Single and Combined Salinity and Heat Stresses Impact Yield and Dead Pericarp Priming Activity

A 41‐year bioclimatology of thermal stress in Europe

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