Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins

Shrestha, Sangam; Bae, Deg‐Hyo; Hok, Panha; Ghimire, Suwas; Pokhrel, Yadu

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96656-2

Cited by 25 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Overall, there is an increase in precipitation extremes in South Asia in the FF period under the high emission scenario, and this observation is in agreement with the existing studies (Ogata et al, 2014;Sharmila et al, 2015;Jena et al, 2016;Kitoh, 2017;Woo et al, 2018;Scoccimarro and Gualdi, 2020;Almazroui et al, 2021;Shrestha et al, 2021), which were conducted by using CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 GCMs. However, the spatial distribution of projected extreme precipitation indices (Figs.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

et al. 2023

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Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters, often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide. It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes. The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs). The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, student's t-test, and probability density function approach. Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed, including wet days (RR1mm), heavy precipitation days (RR10mm), very heavy precipitation days (RR20mm), severe precipitation days (RR50mm), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21 st century (i.e., near future (NF; 2021-2060) and far future (FF; 2061-2100)) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21 st century (2061-2100). Moreover, from the results of multimodel ensemble means (MMEMs), extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm, RR10mm, RR20mm, CWD, and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part. The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent (intense) occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD. The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding, soil erosion, water resource management, food security, and agriculture development.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

et al. 2023

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“…These conditions increase challenges to water resources management. Responding to the hydrological processes under climate change is one of the critical aspects of hydrological and water resources research [1]. Assessing the impact of climate change on the surface runoff of a reservoir is to recognize how the changes in rainfall may affect the water availability and quality of the reservoir.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of climate change on surface runoff of the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand

Suryani,

Pawattana,

Lohpaisankrit

et al. 2024

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Assessing surface runoff in river basins is paramount for effectively managing water resources. Climate change significantly impacts the availability of water within these basins. The Ubolratana reservoir is vital for sustainable water supply, aquaculture, agricultural practices, and domestic needs. This research aims to evaluate the runoff availability of the reservoir by using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) under distinct climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS model was calibrated based on observed rainfall and runoff data. To project future runoff dynamics, calibrated model parameters were coupled with the bias-corrected rainfall data of Can-ESM5, CESM2, and GFDL-ESM4 models for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 585). The results show upward trends in both projected rainfall and runoff within the drainage area of the Ubolratana reservoir between 2022 and 2061. In summary, the findings of this research may be useful for regional water resources management and strategic planning endeavors.

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“…It comprises the largest concentration of snow and ice reserves outside the polar regions (Yao et al 2012). Himalayan basins are some of the most vulnerable ones to climate change (Bolch et al 2019;Wood et al 2020;Shrestha et al 2021b). Climate change can impact different hydrologic components in the Himalayan region, including glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, reduced mountain snowpack, and early onset of melt (Huss et al 2017;Biemans et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Baniya,

Regmi,

Talchabhadel

et al. 2024

Theor Appl Climatol

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Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resources systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the selected basin, the average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions. This increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is regionspecific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.

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Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins

Cited by 25 publications

References 33 publications

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Assessing the impact of climate change on surface runoff of the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

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