Future Increase in Post‐Drought Precipitation With a Stronger Response to Warming

Abstract

According to observational evidence and climate model projections, the frequency and intensity of the rapid shift from drought to pluvial (rapid dry‒wet alternation, RDWA) increases as warming intensifies. Given that post‐drought precipitation is a key cause of RDWA, this study focuses on changes in post‐drought precipitation. Climate model projections indicate that the mean post‐drought precipitation will increase by 15.3% during 2071–2100 under the Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP) 585 scenario. The scenario‐averaged response rate of post‐drought precipitation (4.6%/K) to global warming is significantly greater than that of general precipitation (2.7%/K). Furthermore, there will be an increase in the proportion of land area experiencing maximum post‐drought precipitation in autumn. The mean post‐drought extreme precipitation will increase by 20.5% under SSP585, exacerbating the severity of RDWA in a warmer world. The post‐drought thermodynamic (precipitable water) and dynamic (atmospheric vertical velocity) components are both conducive to the future increase in post‐drought precipitation.