Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change

Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yoshioka, Mayumi; Shinoda, Taro; Kato, Masaaki; Kanada, Sachie; Kitoh, Akio

doi:10.1002/2014gl061793

Cited by 111 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The biomass of leaves decreased by 10-20 %, lowering the canopy carbon gain by nearly 200 g C m −2 yr −1 . While IPCC (2013) reported that the increases in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone were low confidence in future projections, Tsuboki et al (2015) demonstrated increases in typhoon intensity with global warming in the western North Pacific. An occasional large windthrow event may partly affect the interannual variation in the terrestrial carbon balance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of a windthrow disturbance on the carbon balance of a broadleaf deciduous forest in Hokkaido, Japan

2015

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Abstract.Forests play an important role in the terrestrial carbon balance, with most being in a carbon sequestration stage. The net carbon releases that occur result from forest disturbance, and windthrow is a typical disturbance event affecting the forest carbon balance in eastern Asia. The CO 2 flux has been measured using the eddy covariance method in a deciduous broadleaf forest (Japanese white birch, Japanese oak, and castor aralia) in Hokkaido, where incidental damage by the strong Typhoon Songda in 2004 occurred. We also used the biometrical method to demonstrate the CO 2 flux within the forest in detail. Damaged trees amounted to 40 % of all trees, and they remained on site where they were not extracted by forest management. Gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), and net ecosystem production were 1350, 975, and 375 g C m −2 yr −1 before the disturbance and 1262, 1359, and −97 g C m −2 yr −1 2 years after the disturbance, respectively. Before the disturbance, the forest was an evident carbon sink, and it subsequently transformed into a net carbon source. Because of increased light intensity at the forest floor, the leaf area index and biomass of the undergrowth (Sasa kurilensis and S. senanensis) increased by factors of 2.4 and 1.7, respectively, in 3 years subsequent to the disturbance. The photosynthesis of Sasa increased rapidly and contributed to the total GPP after the disturbance. The annual GPP only decreased by 6 % just after the disturbance. On the other hand, the annual Re increased by 39 % mainly because of the decomposition of residual coarse-wood debris. The carbon balance after the disturbance was controlled by the new growth and the decomposition of residues. The forest management, which resulted in the dead trees remaining at the study site, strongly affected the carbon balance over the years. When comparing the carbon uptake efficiency at the study site with that at others, including those with various kinds of disturbances, we emphasized the importance of forest management as well as disturbance type in the carbon balance.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of a windthrow disturbance on the carbon balance of a broadleaf deciduous forest in Hokkaido, Japan

2015

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“…When Typhoon Bopha crossed Palau, the SWH o was 8.70 m and the average wind speed was 27 m/s at Melekeok reef. Numerical experiments have shown that the 10 maximum wind speeds of TCs in the northwest Pacific will increase by 19% by the late 21st century as a consequence of global warming (Tsuboki et al, 2015). This implies that SWH o will increase in the future, but will probably vary among study sites as a function of wind speed and the path of TCs.…”

Section: Estimation Of Wave Height and Water Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Towards the end of the 21st century, the wind speed and minimum central pressure of the most intense super typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean are estimated to attain 85-90 m/s and 860 hPa, respectively (Tsuboki et al, 2015). Additionally, sea level rise (SLR) caused by global warming will probably increase the risk of coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion of surface water (Woodruff et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the risk of damage to reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

Hongo

Kurihara

Golbuu

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Tropical cyclones (TCs), sea level rise (SLR), and storm surges cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater able to reduce the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change in the risk to coastal reefs under conditions of intensified TCs, SLR, and storm surges are poorly quantified. In this 15 study we assessed the current status of natural breakwaters on Melekeok reef in the Palau Islands. Based on wave simulations we predicted the potential effects on the reef by 2100 of intensified TCs (significant wave height at the outer ocean = 8.7-11.0 m; significant wave period at the outer ocean = 13-15 s), SLR (0.24-0.98 m), and storm surge. The simulation was conducted for two reef condition scenarios: a degraded reef and a healthy reef. Analyses of reef growth based on drillcores enabled an assessment of the coral community and rate of reef production that are necessary to reduce the risk 20 to the coast of TCs, SLR, and storm surges. The reef is currently highly effective in dissipating incoming waves, with the reef crest to the upper reef slope reducing wave height by 75%, and the entire reef dissipating waves by 88% of the incident wave height. However, our calculations show that under intensified TCs, SLR, and storm surges, by 2100 significant wave heights at the reef flat will increase from 1.05-1.24 m at present to 2.14 m if reefs are degraded. Similarly, by 2100 the sea level at the shoreline will increase from 0.86-2.10 m at present to 1.19-3.45 m if reefs are degraded. These predicted 25 changes will probably cause beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure. However, our simulation indicates that reef growth reduces the wave height by a maximum of 0.44 m at the reef flat by 2100. These findings emphasize the need for future reef formation to reduce the damaging effects of waves on the coastline. Corymbose Acropora corals will be key to reducing such effects, and 2.6-5.8 kg CaCO 3 /m 2 /y will be required to build the reef by 2100.If the RCP 8.5 scenario is realized by 2100, an increase in coral cover of >8% will be needed to reduce the impact of waves 30 on the coastline. The use of coral reef growth to reduce disaster risk will be more cost-effective than building artificial Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess- -3, 2017 Manuscript under review for journal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discussion started: 16 March 2017 c Author(s) 2017. CC-BY 3.0 License. 2 barriers. Benefits in addition to reducing disaster risk include the ecological services provided by reefs, and marine products and tourism. Research of the type described here will be required to advise policy development directed at d...

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“…For example, Kanada et al (2010) clearly indicated that the rainfall in a 5-km-mesh RCM is better represented than that in the 20-km-mesh GCM. Tsuboki et al (2015) conducted 2-km-mesh downscaling experiments for the 30 strongest typhoons simulated in 20-km-mesh Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) for future warmed climate and obtained 12 supertyphoons, which cannot be quantitatively reproduced in AGCMs.…”

Section: Rationalementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan: Philosophy and achievements of the SOUSEI program

Takemi

Okada

Ito

et al. 2016

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:We review the philosophy and achievements of the research activity on assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan under Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI). The concept of this research project consists of assessing worstclass meteorological hazards and evaluating probabilistic information on the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena. Worst-scenario analyses for historical extreme typhoons and probabilistic analyses on Baiu, warm-season rainfalls, and strong winds with the use of high-performance climate model outputs are described. Collaboration among the fields in meteorology, hydrology, coastal engineering, and forest science plays a key role in advancing the impact assessment of meteorological hazards and risks. Based on the present research activity, possible future directions are given.

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Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change

Cited by 111 publications

References 27 publications

Effects of a windthrow disturbance on the carbon balance of a broadleaf deciduous forest in Hokkaido, Japan

Effects of a windthrow disturbance on the carbon balance of a broadleaf deciduous forest in Hokkaido, Japan

Projecting the risk of damage to reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

Assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan: Philosophy and achievements of the SOUSEI program

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