Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

Abstract

Summary Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide‐tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2‐day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.

Awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours: public perceptions of invasive tree pests and pathogens in the UK

“…In their study of the threats facing UK biodiversity, Sutherland et al (2008) identified the decline in people's engagement with nature as having the potential to reduce environmental knowledge and concern. If, as our study suggests, awareness of tree health issues is enhanced through engagement with nature then the apparent decline in engagement is of concern.…”

Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

“…The conventional wisdom enshrined in the work of Peace [13], conducted over many decades, appeared to be the final word on the subject of DED. 3 The community of tree pathologists based at Alice Holt was slow to question this paradigm in the face of conflicting evidence. As Clive Brasier, a senior plant pathologist, acknowledged in interview with us 'it was very difficult to avoid being influenced by Peace because he was very authoritative: he was a fine scientist and a tremendous observer' (interview with Brasier [5]).…”

“…The result is that trees and woodland in the UK are arguably under greater threat today from invasive pathogens than ever before [3,4]. The sudden oak death pathogen, P. ramorum (Pr), is thought to have first arrived in the UK as a single introduction, probably on infected nursery stock originating from within the EU [22].…”

“…Overwhelmingly, the main risk drivers are the expanding trade in plants and plant products, together with growing transportation [1][2][3][4]. Biologically complex and often emerging as disease threats because of an ability to coevolve with new hosts and to rapidly exploit the environments with which they come into contact, tree disease pathogens pose both a scientific and management challenge.…”

“…2 Usually understood as a quarantine line, created by clear-felling trees within a designated zone on the leading edge of the epidemic in order to slow its spread via known vectors. 3 Tom Peace was a key figure in the early development of DED research. Peace was Chief Research Officer at Alice Holt in the early 1960s and drew on extensive observational fieldwork of earlier (but less virulent) DED outbreaks in his influential monograph 'The Status and Development of Elm Disease in Britain'.…”