Future projections of heat waves around Japan simulated by CMIP3 and high‐resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric climate models

Nakano, Masuo; Matsueda, Mio; Sugi, Masato

doi:10.1002/jgrd.50260

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Meehl and Tebaldi predict a 25–30% increase in the number of heat waves per year along, accompanied by an increased heat wave duration (45). Nakano et al predict an increase of more than 22 extra heat wave days per year in Japan (48). Hayhoe et al predict that by the end of the 21 st century, extremely deadly heat waves will occur in the city of Chicago as frequently as every three months (23, 59).…”

Section: Heat Wave Frequency and Severitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat Waves, Aging, and Human Cardiovascular Health

Kenney

Craighead

Alexander

2014

Medicine &Amp; Science in Sports &Amp; Exercise

252

174

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This brief review is based on a President’s Lecture presented at the Annual Meeting of the American College of Sports Medicine in 2013. The purpose of this review is to assess the effects of climate change and consequent increases in environmental heat stress on the aging cardiovascular system. The earth’s average global temperature is slowly but consistently increasing, and along with mean temperature changes come increases in heat wave frequency and severity. Extreme passive thermal stress resulting from prolonged elevations in ambient temperature, as well as prolonged physical activity in hot environments, creates a high demand on the left ventricle to pump blood to the skin to dissipate heat. Even healthy aging is accompanied by altered cardiovascular function, which limits the extent to which older individuals can maintain stroke volume, increase cardiac output, and increase skin blood flow when exposed to environmental extremes. In the elderly, the increased cardiovascular demand during heat waves is often fatal due to increased strain on an already compromised left ventricle. Not surprisingly, excess deaths during heat waves 1) occur predominantly in older individuals and 2) are overwhelmingly cardiovascular in origin. Increasing frequency and severity of heat waves coupled with a rapidly growing at-risk population dramatically increases the extent of future untoward health outcomes.

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Section: Heat Wave Frequency and Severitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat Waves, Aging, and Human Cardiovascular Health

Kenney

Craighead

Alexander

2014

Medicine &Amp; Science in Sports &Amp; Exercise

252

174

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“…Previous studies have suggested that the frequency of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation over East Asia 1 , intense extratropical cyclones 2 , and heat waves 3 , will increase in the future. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important category of such extreme events, as they can cause substantial impacts on populated areas, in the form of strong winds and precipitation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM

Ogata

Mizuta²,

Adachi

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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Atmosphere-ocean coupling effect on the frequency distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and its future change is studied using an atmosphere and ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). In the present climate simulation, the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the AOGCM improves biases in the AGCM such as the poleward shift of the maximum of intense TC distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and too many intense TCs in the Southern Hemisphere. Particularly, subsurface cold water plays a key role to reduce these AGCM biases of intense TC distribution. Besides, the future change of intense TC distribution is significantly different between AOGCM and AGCM despite the same monthly SST. In the north Atlantic, subsurface warming causes larger increase in frequency of intense TCs in AOGCM than that in AGCM. Such subsurface warming in AOGCM also acts to alter large decrease of intense TC in AGCM to no significant change in AOGCM over the southwestern Indian Ocean. These results suggest that atmosphere-ocean coupling characterized by subsurface oceanic structure is responsible for more realistic intense TC distribution in the current climate simulation and gives significant impacts on its future projection.

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“…Thus, it was found that outdoor heat stress during summer in Japan was affected by both mesoscale geography and local factors. It is anticipated that heat wave encounters will increase over Japan in the future and that this will trigger heat disorders and sleep disturbance in many inhabitants (e.g., Nakano and Matsueda 2012). Hence, mesoscale evaluations and predictions of human heat indices will be required to help the society and the general public.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Simulations of Summer Mesoscale Heat-Stress around the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

Ohashi

Shimada

Ohsawa

2014

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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We simulated mesoscale distributions of summertime human heat stress around the Seto Inland Sea in western Japan, using a mesoscale numerical model: WRF-ARW at 2 km horizontal resolution. In this study, the Heat Index, which indicates the real human-felt temperature, was adopted as a heat-hazard index that can represent mesoscale spatial distributions of human heat stress. Our simulations specified regions of undesirably high daytime Heat Index around the Seto Inland Sea for the year 2007, an extremely hot summer. Although the daytime high surface air temperature in the Osaka Plain was the most prominent of the calculation domain (at 1400 JST, August air temperature means of 33-35 °C), high Heat Index regions were broadly found in other land areas around the Seto Inland Sea in addition to the Osaka Plain: the Tokushima, Okayama, Sanuki, and Nakatsu Plains (at 1400 JST, August Heat Index means of 37-39 °C). Daytime differences between air temperature and Heat Index were large in the four previously mentioned plains (excluding the Osaka Plain), showing a difference of 5-7 °C in our simulation. The large differences were caused by the difference of relative humidity in the region. Hence, residents in these plains should carefully avoid high heat stress, because they may be feel hotter than the actual air temperature.To discuss mechanisms increasing the mesoscale Heat Index, sensitivity experiments for mountains and sea surface temperature were conducted. They revealed that those factors worked selectively in the above regions. The existence of mountains induced thermal effects due to a valley-like terrain, and higher sea surface temperature produced warm and moist air transports from the sea. Daytime local circulations, which were topographically and thermally driven, were important for both factors. These mountain and high sea surface temperature influences produced increases of Heat Index of 1-2 °C in the aforementioned four regions.

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Future projections of heat waves around Japan simulated by CMIP3 and high‐resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric climate models

Cited by 11 publications

References 28 publications

Heat Waves, Aging, and Human Cardiovascular Health

Heat Waves, Aging, and Human Cardiovascular Health

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM

Numerical Simulations of Summer Mesoscale Heat-Stress around the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

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