Future Proofing Subsurface Skills During the Energy Transition, 2030 - 2050

Abstract

This paper discusses the findings and outcomes of the SPE-Workshop entitled "Future Proofing Engineering and Geoscience Skills During the Energy Transition", which was organized in Abu Dhabi, UAE in November, 2022. The workshop considered the challenges faced in recruiting and retaining skilled professionals in the period 2030 to 2050. These challenges will be faced not only by national oil companies (NOCs) but also by international oil companies (IOCs) and service companies. The workshop brought together representatives from NOCs, IOCs, universities, and training providers to integrate multiple perspectives. Enrollments in petroleum engineering and petroleum geoscience university programs have declined precipitously since the oil price drop of 2014. It has been estimated that the oil and gas (O&G) industry has lost over 450,000 jobs. Furthermore, concerns about climate change, and the industry’s role in causing climate change, has led many young people to seek careers in other fields. This has led to the suspension of some engineering and geoscience programs or the merger of petroleum engineering departments with other engineering departments. In some cases, petroleum engineering departments are "re-branding" themselves as "energy engineering" departments. These trends are worldwide, including the Middle East. Moreover, the world is moving towards a more diverse energy future. However, most forecasts of the energy mix in 2050 suggest that O&G will still play a significant role in providing society’s energy needs. Thus, the continuing need for dedicated petroleum engineers and geoscientists is clear, particularly for the low-cost, low-carbon intensity producers common in the Middle East. This is counter to public perception which drive enrollment trends that would lead to a shortage of subsurface professionals. The workshop considered topics related to skills demand trends, features of growing or stable academic programs, alternatives for programs which are in decline, alternative career options for subsurface professionals, balancing program accreditation with including new skills, alternative methods to develop the required skills, and steps which could be taken now to mitigate recruitment training challenges. The workshop discussions identified risks and opportunities in the supply chain for subsurface professionals. This workshop showed that the regional demand for traditional petroleum engineering and geoscience skills is unlikely to change significantly between 2030 and 2050. On the other hand, the additional demand for related subsurface skills (for example in CCS or geothermal) is likely to increase, and there is an opportunity to promote this linkage to environmental careers. We also found that geoscience skills are at greater risk than engineering skills. In addition, there is the risk of a "disconnect" between academic and industrial needs. It was recognized that fundamentals (physics/math, problem solving, fluid flow) form the basis of strong petroleum or energy engineering programs and are transferable between disciplines. However, there is an increased need for programming, Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning, and data science skills in the industry. The findings showed that subsurface skills are critically important in achieving decarbonization goals; petroleum engineers and geoscientists have unique foundation and background to lead decarbonization efforts. The workshop highlighted the need to start taking steps to mitigate some of the likely outcomes of the current demographics. Nevertheless, mitigating the current trends requires cooperation and coordination between multiple stakeholders. It is unlikely that public perception regarding the value of the oil and gas industry will change; concerned organizations will need to take action to overcome the forecast shortfalls in skills.