Future Raw Material Supply: Opportunities and Limits of Aluminium Recycling in Austria

Abstract

In order to promote sustainable production by using secondary raw material from existing material stocks, complementary to primary raw material, information about the future availability of secondary resources constitutes a prerequisite. In this study, a dynamic material flow model of historic aluminium (Al) flows in Austria is combined with forecasts on future Al consumption to estimate the development of old scrap generation and in-use stocks until 2050. In-use stocks are estimated to increase by 60 % to 515 kg/cap. by 2050 assuming a scenario of moderate economic growth. Old scrap generation in 2050 would thereby more than double (up to 30 kg/cap.) in comparison to the 2010 amounts. Despite this substantial increase in old scrap generation, industrial self-supply from old scrap will probably not exceed 20 %, and final consumption selfsupply of Al will not exceed 40 % given present conditions. Opportunities and limits of increasing self-supply through higher collection rates and lower scrap export levels are investigated in this study as the European Raw Material Initiative considers enhanced recycling to be a key measure to ensure future resource supply. Based on these analyses, a self-sustaining Al supply from post-consumer Al is not expected if current trends of Al usage continue. Therefore, comprehensive resource policy should be based on a profound understanding of the availability of primary and secondary resources potentials and their dynamics.

Evaluating the Use of Global Sensitivity Analysis in Dynamic MFA

“…Buchner et al. ) or the requirement of closed mass balances applied to the model (i.e., recycled material flows have to [exactly] correspond with the quantities used in secondary production). Because higher‐order effects are expected to become more prominent in such models, the investigation of parameter interaction effects and parameter dependencies (e.g., Mara et al.…”

“…A practical example for the first sector, where the mean ratio m r1 rises and, simultaneously, the lifetime rises, would be the aluminium use in vehicles (cf. Buchner et al 2015b).…”

“…Dynamic material flow models will gain in complexity in the future attributed to the consideration of various material quality layers (e.g. Buchner et al 2015b) or the requirement of closed mass balances applied to the model (i.e., recycled material flows have to [exactly] correspond with the quantities used in secondary production). Because higher-order effects are expected to become more prominent in such models, the investigation of parameter interaction effects and parameter dependencies (e.g., Mara et al 2015) will become a major field for extending the use of sensitivity analysis in dynamic MFA.…”

Prospects for the Development of Aluminum Production in Russia

“…Одновременно следует отметить тенденции к развитию рынка алюминия из вторичного сырья. Такие тенденции сопряжены как с потребностями экономического развития, так и с потребностями экологической безопасности и ограниченностью первичного сырья для изготовления алюминия, в связи с чем многие исследователи и эксперты рынка указывают на необходимость поиска источников вторичного сырья металла и увеличения доли вторичного алюминия в общей структуре его производства [8][9][10]. В частности, отмечается, что по оценкам экспертов при существующем уровне потребления разведанных запасов бокситов (основного сырья для производства первичного алюминия) хватит примерно на 80-100 лет, а при растущих темпах потребления и вовсе на 20 лет [11].…”

The Development Scenarios and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition

“…Among them, the issue of aluminum flows on the global level has been widely concerned [1][2][3][4]. There are also some studies that have conducted national-level material flow analysis, such as the United States [5,6], Austria [7][8][9], and Italy [10]. In particular, the material flow analysis of aluminum in China has also been deeply reported [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18].…”