Future Risk for Southern Ocean Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change

Abstract

The Southern Ocean supports ecosystem services that are important on a global scale. Climate change and human activities (tourism, fishing, and research) will affect both the demand for, and the provision of, these services into the future. Here we synthesize recent assessments of the current status and expected future climate-driven changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems and evaluate the potential consequences of these changes for the provision of ecosystem services. We explore in detail three key services (the ‘blue carbon’ pathway, the Antarctic krill fishery, and Antarctic tourism), tracing the consequences of climate change from physical drivers through biological impacts to the benefits to humans. We consider potential non-climatic drivers of change, current and future demands for the services, and the main global and regional policy frameworks that could be used to manage risks to the provision of these services in a changing climate. We also develop a formal representation of the network of interactions between the suite of potential drivers and the suite of services, providing a framework to capture the complexity of this network and its embedded feedback loops. Increased consideration of the linkages and feedbacks between drivers and ecosystem services will be required to underpin robust management responses into the future.

A Decade of Incorporating Social Sciences in the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research Project (IMBeR): Much Done, Much to Do?

“…Despite the many (potential) benefits of interdisciplinary collaboration for addressing global and regional science questions, including data sharing and gaining common ground (Harden-Davies, 2017), there is currently no smooth-running conduit for developing social and natural science collaborations (and interdisciplinary approaches) between regional and globalscale research programmes. However, efforts to achieve such collaboration are emerging and improving including; the IMBeR ESSAS programme which created its own Human Dimensions Working Group; the CLIOTOP programme which provides data and outputs to Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (e.g., Lehodey et al, 2015) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (e.g., Maury et al, 2017); and ongoing scientific contributions to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) (Cavanagh et al, 2021) through the ICED programme (Murphy et al, 2008). Experiences of collaboration between social and natural sciences and the implementation of interdisciplinary approaches are thus not absent at Regional Programme levels (see for instance Evans et al, 2020) but neither are they ubiquitous.…”

Responses of Southern Ocean Seafloor Habitats and Communities to Global and Local Drivers of Change

“…Possible shifts from invertebrate-to algal-dominated states resulting from increases in light could reduce coastal biodiversity in some Southern Ocean locations (Clark et al, 2013), and lead to alterations in ecosystem function (Worm et al, 2006;Cavanagh et al, 2020). However, the spatial variation in the duration of Antarctic sea ice cover around the Antarctic margin (Maksym et al, 2012), combined with a lack of observations at appropriate spatial and temporal scales in Southern Ocean waters, prohibit drawing conclusions about changes in algal distribution.…”

Stakeholder Engagement in Decision Making and Pathways of Influence for Southern Ocean Ecosystem Services

“…Fisheries products; genetic resources; biochemicals, medicines, pharmaceuticals; fresh water Note that biodiversity is considered to underpin ecosystem services rather than as an ecosystem service of itself (following Seddon et al, 2016;Cavanagh et al, 2021).…”

“…The need for effective management and robust decision-making for Southern Ocean ecosystems will become more important as the global climate continues to change (Constable et al, 2017;Meredith et al, 2019;Cavanagh et al, 2021). The impacts of climate-driven environmental changes pose current and future risks for most Southern Ocean ecosystem services, and these risks will need to be managed to meet increasing demand for fisheries products, tourism and regulating services.…”

“…Recent assessments have helped to build a clearer understanding of the links between environmental change, ecological process and functions, and associated risks for continued delivery of Southern Ocean ecosystem services; these assessments were conducted in the contexts of anticipated changes in demand and climate change impacts (Rogers et al, 2020;Trebilco et al, 2020;Cavanagh et al, 2021). However, the human dimensions that determine how and where ecosystem services are valued and used are arguably much less well understood.…”