Future runoff from a partly glacierized watershed in Central Switzerland: A two-model approach

Kobierska, Florian; Jonas, Tobias; Zappa, Massimiliano; Bavay, Mathias; Magnusson, Jan; Bernasconi, Stefano M.

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.07.024

Cited by 60 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…And the vast majority of the hydrological and HPP climate change impact studies come to the conclusion that climate modelling accounts for far more uncertainty than the local-scale hydro-hydraulic modelling (Schaefli et al, 2007;Bosshard et al, 2013;Gosling et al, 2011). This conclusion has, however, to be critically analyzed in light of the fact that very few studies confront hydrological models that are fundamentally different (Addor et al, 2014;Kobierska et al, 2013) or study a wide enough range of land use scenarios as e.g. in the work of Finger et al (2012), where the climate, the glacier retreat scenarios and the hydrological model are all deemed equivalent sources of uncertainty for HPP production.…”

Section: From Uncertain Future Climate To Electricity Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Schaefli

2015

WIREs Water

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Hydropower is a key energy source in almost all world regions, it fuels social and economic development, ensures electricity security and is a pillar for renewable electricity production. But hydropower and its environmental impacts are vulnerable to climate change. This discussion of model-based climate change impact assessments and underlying modelling assumptions will help decision makers and scientists analyzing existing studies and identifying the most urgent open questions. Rooted in hydrological uncertainty analysis, this discussion focuses on the importance of local factors and on modelling uncertainties for a critical view on our ability to project future hydropower production in different world regions.

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Section: From Uncertain Future Climate To Electricity Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Schaefli

2015

WIREs Water

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“…While there are numerous studies on climate change impacts on the future of glaciers and hydrology for various parts of the European Alps, particularly Switzerland (e.g., Addor et al, 2014;Bosshard et al, 2013;Farinotti et al, 2011;Fatichi et al, 2015;Finger et al, 2012;Horton et al, 2006;Huss et al, 2008Huss et al, , 2014Kobierska et al, 2013;Milano et al, 2015), few such studies exist for Austria. Kuhn and Batlogg (1998) used hypothetical temperature change scenarios to simulate future runoff for nine Austrian catchments with varying glacierization using a simple conceptual water balance model while assuming constant glacier areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies have for example applied enhanced temperature index methods that also take solar radiation into account for melt calculation (e.g., Addor et al, 2014;Bosshard et al, 2013;Fatichi et al, 2015;Finger et al, 2012), addressing the fact that glacier melt rates are especially sensitive to variations in solar radiation (e.g., Huss et al, 2009;Ohmura et al, 2007). Only very few studies (e.g., Kobierska et al, 2013;Weber et al, 2010) however have applied full energy balance melt models for climate change impact assessment. While their superiority to more empirical methods is undisputed under the premise of in situ recordings of the required meteorological variables at the point scale, it remains challenging to provide adequate meteorological forcing data for their application in distributed mode.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Hanzer

Förster

Nemec

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

100

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Abstract.A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this -to date -the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km 2 , 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km 2 ) and glacierization (24-77 %).Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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“…It has been recognized that the estimate of the initial glacier ice volume (Gabbi et al, 2012), and the approach to calculate glacier geometry change have a strong impact on calculated future glacier area and runoff (Huss et al, 2010b;Linsbauer et al, 2013). Many studies have focused on uncertainties in modeling of snow and ice melt based on the surface energy balance or temperature-index models (e.g., Klok and Oerlemans, 2004;Hock, 2005;Pellicciotti et al, 2005;Kobierska et al, 2013). Other factors such as the effect of the spatial snow accumulation distribution, and changes in debris-covered glacier surfaces on modeled discharge have not yet been specifically addressed by glacio-hydrological studies to our knowledge.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

106

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Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st century glacier runoff is provided based on experiments using the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) applied to the catchment of Findelengletscher, Switzerland. GERM is calibrated and validated in a multi-objective approach and is run using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) until 2100. Among others, the hydrological impacts of the RCM downscaling procedure, the winter snow accumulation, the surface albedo and the calculation of ice melt and glacier retreat are investigated. All experiments indicate rapid glacier wastage and a transient runoff increase followed by reduced melt season discharge. However, major uncertainties in, e.g., glacier area loss (À100% to À63%) and the change in annual runoff (À57% to +25% relative to today) by 2100 are found. The impact of model assumptions on changes in August runoff is even higher (À94% to À5%). The spread in RCM results accounts for 20-50% of the overall uncertainty in modeled discharge. Initial ice thickness, the amount and spatial distribution of winter snow and the glacier retreat model have the largest effect on the projections, whereas the RCM downscaling procedure, calibration data quality and the melt model (energy balance vs. degree-day approach) are of secondary importance.

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Future runoff from a partly glacierized watershed in Central Switzerland: A two-model approach

Cited by 60 publications

References 31 publications

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

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