Future Trends in Obolodiplosis robiniae Distribution across Eurasian Continent under Global Climate Change

Abstract

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34′ and 65°39′ N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae

“…Identifying different potential suitable areas during species distribution modeling is crucial for understanding the possibilities and changes in species distribution [ 40 ]. However, the transformation of suitable areas with different suitability levels under climate change has been overlooked in many studies on species distribution modeling.…”

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model

“…The distribution characteristics of the points are predominately distributed in North America (99.80%), especially in the southern United States. To avoid deviation of this sampling and evenly collect occurrence data, we used the SDMtoolbox v2.4 in ArcGIS to analyze the climate heterogeneity, screened 145 occurrence data, and eliminated local spatial clusters 66 . The use of more representative samples often leads to a higher prediction accuracy 67 .…”

“…To avoid deviation of this sampling and evenly collect occurrence data, we used the SDMTOOLBOX v2.4 in ArcGIS to analyze the climate heterogeneity, screened 145 occurrence data, and eliminated local spatial clusters. 66 The use of more representative samples often leads to a higher prediction accuracy. 67 We used R software to remove redundant climate data, optimize model parameters, improve model accuracy and bring the predictions closer to reality.…”

The gall midge Obolodiplosis robiniae Haldemann (Diptera Cecidomyiidae) new invasive alien species in Europa – Review

“…The penetration of invasive alien species and especially their acclimatization (many of them being slightly thermophilic) on the European continent is also facilitated by climate change, especially by the phenomenon of global warming, which directly affects their survival, fecundity, development and dispersal (Hrubík and Kollár, 2007;Roques, 2010 b;Zhao et al, 2023). There have been increases in average annual temperatures at some weather stations by about 1 °C.…”

“…The latest European report is from Armenia, where the species was detected in 2019 (Gubin, 2021). Obolodiplosis robiniae is within the range of 21°34′ and 65°39′ N in the Eurasian continent (Zhao et al, 2023).…”