Fuzzy-based non-bankruptcy trend forecast

Abstract

Many companies face an economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak, which makes their future uncertain. The practical aim of the paper is to establish a procedure for an effective prediction of a business tendency to bankrupt in the short-term period. The tool is a three-stage fuzzy model formulated in the theoreticalmethodological part and applied on the real data of an examined company. The model input parameters are objective and subjective measured data between 2008-2020 of a nature affecting the output. The output is an interval of subjectively expected values determining the non-Bankruptcy trend (non-B) of a company. The paper shows advantages of the interval fuzzy approach for bankruptcy prediction and identifies the measure of business safety.