Fuzzy-logic detection and probability of hail exploiting short-range X-band weather radar

Capozzi, Vincenzo; Picciotti, Errico; Mazzarella, Vincenzo; Marzano, Frank S.; Budillon, Giorgio

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.10.006

Cited by 18 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…The latter, as demonstrated in [43,44], may exhibit acceptable performance at short ranges (i.e., below 80 km) when compared to conventional systems (the S and C-band systems), but with the advantage of more affordable costs in terms of infrastructure, power requirements and maintenance. In this respect, our work fits a research path that in recent years has been devoted to exploit the potential usefulness of low-cost X-band radars in weather surveillance, especially at urban scale (e.g., [43,[45][46][47][48]); 3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…According to an approach that is widely used in literature (e.g., [5,28,31,47]), for each of the components of the input vector x = [x = ∆H max 40dBZ,−20 • C , x 2 = VII max , x 3 = A 40dBZ,−10 • C ] of the radar-based predicting variables, we have looked for the respective thresholds, th 1 , th 2 , th 3 , which maximize the CSI. The CSI maximization process is shown in Figure 5, where we have expressed the CSI as a function of various percentile levels of x j to present the result in a single plot.…”

Section: Threshold Selections For the Single Variable Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Variable Classification Approach for the Detection of Lightning Activity Using a Low-Cost and Portable X Band Radar

et al. 2018

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This work proposes a multi-parameter method for the detection of cloud-to-ground stroke rate (SR CG ) associated to convective cells, based on the measurements of a low-cost single-polarization X-band weather radar. To train and test our procedure, we built up a multi-year dataset, collecting 1575 radar reflectivity volumes that were acquired in the pilot study area of Naples metropolitan environment matched with the LIghtning NETwork (LINET) strokes and meteorological in-situ data. Three radar-based variables are extracted simultaneously for each rain cell and properly merged together, using "ad hoc" classification methods, to produce an estimation of the expected lightning activity for each rain cell. These variables, proxies of mixed-phase particles and ice amount into a convective cell, are combined into a single label to cluster the SR CG into two categories: SR CG = 0 (no production of strokes) or SR CG > 0 (stroke production), respectively. Overall, the main results are comparable with those that were obtained from more advanced radar systems, showing a Critical Success Index of 0.53, an Equitable Threat Score of 0.34, a Frequency Bias Index of 1.00, a Heidke Skill Score of 0.42, a Hanssen-Kuiper Skill Score of 0.42, and an area under the curve of probability of detection as a function of false alarm rate (usually referred as ROC curve) equal to 0.78. The developed technique, although with some limitations, outperforms those based on the use of single stroke proxy parameters. stroke discharges with a spatial resolution as high as up to 100 m and with a detection efficiency up to 95%, although these performances depend on the network density and the type of sensors.The real-time surveillance of stroke occurrence can also rely on weather radar measurements, which are able to track and characterize the three-dimensional (3D) structure of rain cells, thus allowing for identifying the developing cycle of cells and the areas much prone to stroke activity, even before the occurrence of the first lightning event (e.g., [5]). Therefore, the set-up of a reliable, affordable, and accessible radar-based stroke detection system, complementary to traditional ground-based stroke networks, can be very useful for risk prevention and for safety of human life, goods and services. In addition, a stand-alone radar-based stroke detection system could cover those areas where data from lightning networks are not freely accessible or where their detection efficiency levels are not constant over large domains, due to the irregular distribution of lightning sensors.This work is aimed at proposing a new algorithm for the radar-based detection of stroke activity based on a multi-variable approach.To explain our approach, it is useful to briefly summarize the atmosphere electrification mechanisms and the radar-based approaches so far proposed in the state of the art literature. Electrification mechanisms in thunderstorms are explained following the widely accepted Non-Inductive Charging (NIC) theory, whose evidences have been supported...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Threshold Selections For the Single Variable Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Variable Classification Approach for the Detection of Lightning Activity Using a Low-Cost and Portable X Band Radar

et al. 2018

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“…Notable SP radar methods that have been shown to perform well are the vertically integrated liquid water (VIL) density (Amburn and Wolf 1997) and the maximum expected size of hail (MESH; Witt et al 1998a), both of which are based on vertical integration of radar reflectivity at horizontal polarization Z H . These and other similar Z H -based methods have been cross evaluated and/or verified against hail reports in multiple studies during the past two decades (e.g., Edwards and Thompson 1998;Holleman et al 2000;Marzban and Witt 2001;Ortega et al 2005;San Ambrosio et al 2007;Donavon and Jungbluth 2007;López and Sanchez 2009;Liu and Heckman 2010;Saltikoff et al 2010;Cintineo et al 2012;Skripniková and Rezá cová 2014;Nisi et al 2016;Lukach et al 2017;Capozzi et al 2018;Wang et al 2018;Ortega 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Severe Hail Fall and Hailstorm Detection Using Remote Sensing Observations

Murillo

Homeyer

2019

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Severe hail days account for the vast majority of severe weather-induced property losses in the United States each year. In the United States, real-time detection of severe storms is largely conducted using ground-based radar observations, mostly using the operational Next Generation Weather Radar network (NEXRAD), which provides three-dimensional information on the physics and dynamics of storms at ;5-min time intervals. Recent NEXRAD upgrades to higher resolution and to dual-polarization capabilities have provided improved hydrometeor discrimination in real time. New geostationary satellite platforms have also led to significant changes in observing capabilities over the United States beginning in 2016, with spatiotemporal resolution that is comparable to that of NEXRAD. Given these recent improvements, a thorough assessment of their ability to identify hailstorms and hail occurrence and to discriminate between hail sizes is needed. This study provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of existing observational radar and satellite products from more than 10 000 storms objectively identified via radar echo-top tracking and nearly 6000 hail reports during 30 recent severe weather days (2013-present). It is found that radar observations provide the most skillful discrimination between severe and nonsevere hailstorms and identification of individual hail occurrence. Single-polarization and dual-polarization radar observations perform similarly at these tasks, with the greatest skill found from combining both single-and dual-polarization metrics. In addition, revisions to the ''maximum expected size of hail'' (MESH) metric are proposed and are shown to improve spatiotemporal comparisons between reported hail sizes and radar-based estimates for the cases studied.

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“…Diversas pesquisas demonstram como são impactantes os efeitos da precipitação de granizo em culturas agrícolas, casas, carros, edifícios e na biodiversidade (KREUZ, et al, 2002;NIALL;WALSH, 2005;AMARANTE, 2009;VIANA et al, 2009;ALLEN et al, 2011;HAND;CAPPELLUTI, 2011;SILVA et al, 2012;MEZHER, 2012;KLANOVICZ, 2013;DOLATI et al, 2014;MOHR et al, 2015;PUNGE;KUNZ, 2016;BLAMEY et al, 2017;PUNGE et al, 2017;SANCHEZ et al, 2017;CALDANA et al, 2018;CAPOZZI et al, 2018;JIM et al, 2018;PREIN;HOLLAND, 2018;TREFALT et al, 2018). Como se trata, normalmente, de um evento local, a medição das ocorrências de granizo é dificultada pela baixa densidade de estações meteorológicas que detectam este fenômeno.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Gênese, Impacto e a Variabilidade das Precipitações de Granizo na Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense, Brasil / Genesis, Impact and Variability of Hail Precipitations in the Central South Mesoregion of the State of Paraná, Brazil

et al. 2019

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ResumoCondições de tempo e clima são essenciais para a agricultura e o desenvolvimento da sociedade, entretanto, sua dinâmica pouco compreendida pode comprometer algumas atividades humanas. A precipitação de granizo, um evento extremo caracterizado por precipitação de água em estado sólido, tem alta capacidade destrutiva no meio rural e urbano, gerando transtornos e prejuízos frequentes. A Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense (MRCSP) possui uma grande área de produção agrícola e aproximadamente 500 mil habitantes, que podem estar vulneráveis a eventos meteorológicos extremos, sendo necessário estudos que auxiliem o planejamento para auxiliar tomadas de decisão na região. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a gênese, frequência, ocorrência, impactos e a variabilidade de precipitações de granizo na MRCSP, fornecendo suporte para o planejamento e adoção de preventivas de combate ao impacto desse fenômeno na região. Foram utilizadas quatro fontes distintas de dados: estações agrometeorológicas, jornais regionais, imagens de satélite e relatórios de ocorrências, danos e situações de emergência da Defesa Civil. Foram identificados 37 decretos de situação de emergência vinculados a granizo e 395.057 pessoas afetadas na região, em 18 anos de análise. O principal dano observado foi o destelhamento. Em Laranjeiras do Sul observou-se, em média, 5,4 eventos por ano. Os sistemas convectivos e as frentes frias foram identificados como os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na formação de granizo nesta região. Os resultados demonstraram alta frequência de precipitações de granizo em toda região. Com ausência de planejamento para redução da vulnerabilidade, a exposição aos eventos extremos meteorológicos permanece frequente.Palavras-chave: vulnerabilidade, risco climático, eventos extremos, clima urbano. AbstractWeather and climate conditions are essential for agriculture and the development of society; however, their little-understood dynamics can compromise some human activities. Hail precipitation, an extreme event characterised by solid state water precipitation, has high destructive capacity in rural and urban environments, generating frequent disturbances and losses. The Central-South Paraná state Meso-region (MRCSP) in southern Brazil has a large agricultural production area and approximately 500 thousand inhabitants, which may be vulnerable to extreme weather events, and studies are needed to assist in decision making in this region. This work aimed to identify the genesis, frequency, occurrence, impacts and variability of hail precipitation in the MRCSP, providing support for the planning and adoption of preventive measures to combat the impact of this phenomenon. Four different sources of data were used: agrometeorological stations, regional newspapers, satellite images and reports of occurrences, damages and emergencies issued by the Civil Defense. Thirtyseven emergency decrees related to hail and 395,057 people affected in the region were identified in 18 years of analysis. The primary damag...

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Fuzzy-logic detection and probability of hail exploiting short-range X-band weather radar

Cited by 18 publications

References 82 publications

Multi-Variable Classification Approach for the Detection of Lightning Activity Using a Low-Cost and Portable X Band Radar

Multi-Variable Classification Approach for the Detection of Lightning Activity Using a Low-Cost and Portable X Band Radar

Severe Hail Fall and Hailstorm Detection Using Remote Sensing Observations

Gênese, Impacto e a Variabilidade das Precipitações de Granizo na Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense, Brasil / Genesis, Impact and Variability of Hail Precipitations in the Central South Mesoregion of the State of Paraná, Brazil

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