Fuzzy repetitive scheduling for construction projects considering risk preferences and time-cost tradeoffs

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to develop a novel approach that addresses time-cost tradeoffs in repetitive construction projects while considering the uncertainty in activity durations and the risk preferences of planners.Design/methodology/approachOur study involves work in three aspects. Firstly, it employs triangular fuzzy numbers to represent activity durations in different units, which facilitates the management of scenarios characterized by limited historical data or the presence of ambiguous information. Secondly, it introduces a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model, which is aimed at minimizing the project budget while ensuring that the risks associated with cost overruns and schedule delays are confined to specified limits. Thirdly, it advances an enhanced genetic algorithm, integrating an electromagnetism-like mechanism and a scheduling repair process, to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the optimization process.FindingsA real-life street renovation project was analyzed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed algorithm. The analysis explored three common types of risk preferences: risk-averse, risk-neutral and risk-loving. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm surpasses existing fuzzy repetitive scheduling methods in terms of risk management. It effectively generates schedules that align with the risk preferences of planners and provides worst-case estimates of project performance.Originality/valueThis research makes a significant contribution to the field by developing a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model and an associated optimization algorithm that is specifically designed for time-cost tradeoffs in repetitive construction projects. A key distinction is that this study considers the risk preferences of planners, which sets it apart from previously developed models. As a result, it provides a practical approach for effective risk management.