Game of Drones: The Effect of Remote Warfighting Technology on Conflict Escalation (Evidence from Wargames)

Lin-Greenberg, Erik

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3288988

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Modern UAVs are a critical emerging technology whose spread has the potential to influence international politics in contexts ranging from counterterrorism (Johnston and Sarbahi, 2016;Mir and Moore, 2019) to interstate conflict (Horowitz et al, 2016;Lin-Greenberg, 2019;Zegart, 2020). Armed drones have spread rapidly over the last five years, producing interesting variation in the adoption of this military technology over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Armed drones can serve as tools of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, as Turkish drone strikes against the Kurds and the US drone campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan illustrate (Johnston and Sarbahi, 2016;Mir and Moore, 2019). The proliferation of armed drones also has important implications for interstate coercion and escalation dynamics (Lin-Greenberg, 2019;Zegart, 2020). For example, in an effort to deter future Iranian attacks, the US assassinated general Qasem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, utilizing an armed drone.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Who’s prone to drone? A global time-series analysis of armed uninhabited aerial vehicle proliferation

Horowitz

Schwartz

Fuhrmann³

2020

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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What determines whether countries pursue and obtain armed drones? Using an original time-series dataset, we conduct the first comprehensive analysis of armed drone proliferation from 1994 to 2019. We theorize and find evidence that security threats—like terrorism—are not the only factors driving proliferation. Regime type also has a significant effect, but it varies over time. From 1994 to 2010 regime type had no significant effect. However, non-democracies became significantly more likely to pursue and obtain armed drones from 2011 to 2019 owing to China’s entrance into the drone export market, which asymmetrically eased supply-side constraints for non-democracies. We also find that status-seeking states are more likely to pursue armed drones. Our results contribute to the broader academic literature on proliferation by demonstrating how supply shocks can lead to changes in proliferation trends over time and lending further credence to the importance of prestige in international politics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Who’s prone to drone? A global time-series analysis of armed uninhabited aerial vehicle proliferation

Horowitz

Schwartz

Fuhrmann³

2020

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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“…With a growing interest in the micro-foundational components of cyber security, scholars are implementing wargaming as a tool to better understand the phenomenon of decision-making in response to cyber operations (for instance, Lin-Greenberg 2018). Although observational studies provide the means with which to investigate real-world incidents, simulations such as war games offer their own set of advantages.…”

Section: A Methodological Shiftmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyber Security Politics

Cavelty¹,

Wenger²

2022

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This book examines new and challenging political aspects of cyber security and presents it as an issue defined by socio-technological uncertainty and political fragmentation.Structured along two broad themes and providing empirical examples for how socio-technical changes and political responses interact, the first part of the book looks at the current use of cyberspace in conflictual settings, while the second focuses on political responses by state and non-state actors in an environment defined by uncertainties. Within this, it highlights four key debates that encapsulate the complexities and paradoxes of cyber security politics from a Western perspective -how much political influence states can achieve via cyber operations and what context factors condition the (limited) strategic utility of such operations; the role of emerging digital technologies and how the dynamics of the tech innovation process reinforce the fragmentation of the governance space; how states attempt to uphold stability in cyberspace and, more generally, in their strategic relations; and how the shared responsibility of state, economy, and society for cyber security continues to be re-negotiated in an increasingly transsectoral and transnational governance space. This book will be of much interest to students of cyber security, global governance, technology studies, and international relations.

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“…This represents a strong belief among many in the wargaming community that the best wargames privilege realism, external validity, and inductive processes over more positivist and internally valid methodologies proffered by modern social science research (Bartels, 2017; Rubel, 2006). However, recent work on the integration of experiments within wargaming suggests wargames can utilize social scientific methods, and prioritizing iteration, control, and generalizability within experimental design can provide new opportunities for wargames (Jensen & Banks, 2018; Lin-Greenberg, 2018; Reddie et al, 2018; Schneider, 2017; Schneider et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wargaming as a Methodology: The International Crisis Wargame and Experimental Wargaming

Schechter

Schneider

Shaffer

2021

Simulation & Gaming

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Background. Wargaming has a long history as a tool for understanding the complexity of conflict. Although wargames have shown their relevance across topics and time, the immersive nature of wargames and the guild-like communities that surround them have often resisted the social scientific advances that occurred alongside the evolution of warfare. However, recent work raises new possibilities for integrating wargaming practices and social scientific methods. Purpose. Develop the experimental wargaming method and practice. Prioritizing the focus on iteration, control, and generalizability within experimental design can provide new opportunities for wargames to answer broader questions about decision-making, crisis behaviors, and patterns of outcomes. Method. The International Crisis Wargame developed in 2018 demonstrates the viability of experimental wargaming, and models the process of theorizing, designing, developing, and executing these wargames. It also identifies what makes games more or less experimental and details how experimental design influenced choices in the game. Conclusion. Experimental wargames are a promising new tool for both the social science and the wargaming communities. A proposed new research agenda for experimental design within wargames would support this nascent method

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Game of Drones: The Effect of Remote Warfighting Technology on Conflict Escalation (Evidence from Wargames)

Cited by 6 publications

References 68 publications

Who’s prone to drone? A global time-series analysis of armed uninhabited aerial vehicle proliferation

Who’s prone to drone? A global time-series analysis of armed uninhabited aerial vehicle proliferation

Cyber Security Politics

Wargaming as a Methodology: The International Crisis Wargame and Experimental Wargaming

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