GDP as a Factor Influencing the Social Indicators of Ukraine's Livelihood: Modelling

Abstract

In the period 1996-2017, the dynamics of the subsistence minimum, the minimum wage, the consumer price index and the gross domestic product of Ukraine are analysed. These indicators have a growing trend. The necessity to use the mathematical modelling to study social and economic indicators of living standards of the population is emphasised. The trend of the dynamics of the minimum wage in the UAH is given. It has a tendency to increase. This tendency is described by quadratic dependence. The following periods are distinguished: 1996-2010 – the smooth growth of wages in quadratic dependence; 2010-2016 years – their slowed down growth by linear dependence. From 2017, when average wage has increased two times, the period of significant wages growing begins. Minimum wage retardation from the subsistence minimum until 2017 is shown. The dynamics of the subsistence minimum, which has the same periods and regularities as the salary, is analysed. Its trend is presented. The dynamics of the consumer price index is analysed. It has been broken down into the following intervals: I (1996-2010) – steady inflation growth; II (2010-2013) – price stability; III (2014 – until now) – rapid growth of prices or inflation. The inflation forecasting for 2018 is given. It is shown that economic growth (GDP) and social standards are cyclical. The main tendencies of the influence of the gross domestic product on the minimum wage, the consumer price index, the subsistence minimum are summarized. The dependence of the minimum wage on the volume of GDP is given. Econometric models of the dependence of the minimum wage on GDP in UAH and the level of inflation from the minimum wage are presented. It is shown that GDP growth is accompanied by the minimum wage increase. It is emphasized that growth of social payments negatively affects the growth of the consumer price index. It is noted that the rate of growth of the economy is not sufficient to ensure the growth of social benefits. The recommendations for economic growth are given.