General hurricane track and intensity model

Abstract

This paper presents a new modeling technique to simulate the entire track of hurricane, starting with their initial points and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations over the sea. The theoretical framework was first described in the literature by Vickery et al. (2000) and is extended in this study by introducing a new formula and several substantial adjustments. The results show acceptable accuracy, even if the input data are for a short period. For the Vietnam case, the research successfully generates a large database of synthetic storm tracks on the basis of a limited historical track record and sea surface temperature. The model is evaluated through the comparisons between the key storm statistics derived from the observed and simulated data over the entire research area (i.e. the South China Sea). Finally, application of this method to risk assessments is proposed.