Generalists yet different: distributional responses to climate change may vary in opportunistic bat species sharing similar ecological traits

Abstract

Climate change is among the key anthropogenic factors affecting species’ distribution, with important consequences for conservation. However, little is known concerning the consequences of distributional changes on community‐level interactions, and responses by generalist species might have many ecological implications in terms of novel interactions with resident species. In this study, we applied Ecological Niche Models and niche analysis to three generalist bat species, Hypsugo savii, Pipistrellus kuhlii, and Pipistrellus pipistrellus, which share similar ecological traits and are sympatric in parts of their ranges. Our aims were to investigate how predicted climate change will affect species’ distribution and to analyse the degree of climatic niche overlap between the three species, in both the current and the future scenarios (2050 and 2070; Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Temperatures were the most important predictors influencing species’ range expansion in future. According to our models, Pipistrellus kuhlii and Hypsugo savii may expand their geographic ranges towards northern latitudes, whereas the geographic range of the less thermophilous Pipistrellus will shift northwards, resulting in it losing the southern portion in Europe. The already considerable degree of climatic niche overlap between the three species will increase further in future. On the basis of our findings, within the new areas potentially colonised by all three species in future, alterations in community‐level balance might occur, bringing about effects that are only partially predictable. In view of this, we highlight the need for further research and improved monitoring of bat communities in areas that are predicted to be particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of African horse sickness virus from 2020 to 2060

“…Committee averaging has a dual purpose in ensemble modeling. Firstly, it can be used to predict suitable niches and secondly, it can also be used to evaluate the model's performance 21 , 22 . The current suitability distribution result was further projected to predict the disease's future distribution gradient under a moderate global warming scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from 2020 to 2060.…”

Do We Need to Use Bats as Bioindicators?

“…Bats are widespread across the globe and their physiological requirements are greatly influenced by ambient temperature, which affects life cycle characteristics such as hibernation and reproduction [ 43 ]. Bats are therefore likely to react to climate change, yet responses have so far been recorded only in a few species (e.g., [ 44 ]). The bat’s large body surface makes dehydration a considerable risk that must be prevented by drinking nightly, so climate change-driven disappearance of drinking sites poses a further threat to bats.…”

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

“…It is also one of the most accurate thresholds (Dubuis et al, 2011;Liu et al, 2005;McDonald et al, 2021;Smeraldo et al, 2021).…”

“…Climate change accelerated by anthropogenic activities is having profound effects on the distribution of global biodiversity. With rapidly changing climate, faunal distributions are expected to shift across latitudinal and elevational gradients (Chen et al, 2011;Enriquez-Urzelai et al, 2020;Parmesan & Yohe, 2003;Smeraldo et al, 2021;Wilson et al, 2007). Although such range shifts can lead to range expansions and population increase in some species (Borzée, Andersen, et al, 2019;Hu et al, 2020), many species are likely to experience range contractions and displacement from their suitable habitats, ultimately leading to population decline and extinction (Ashrafzadeh et al, 2019;Borzée, Andersen, et al, 2019;Hu et al, 2020;Mothes et al, 2020;Zhang, Mammola, et al, 2020).…”