Generating project risk response strategies based on CBR: A case study

Fan, Zhi‐Ping; Li, Yonghai; Zhang, Yao

doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2014.11.034

Cited by 84 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Fan et al. () presented a case‐based reasoning (CBR) method for generating project risk response strategies using the risk response of the subway project as a background. The focus of the above studies has been on the common risk information.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Osipova and Eriksson (2013) encouraged academics and practitioners to reflect further on how to combine different management systems to achieve successful joint risk management. Fan et al (2015) presented a case-based reasoning (CBR) method for generating project risk response strategies using the risk response of the subway project as a background. The focus of the above studies has been on the common risk information.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of uncertain project duration and asymmetric risk sensitivity information in project management

Yang

Zhao

Lan

2015

Int Trans Operational Res

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This paper investigates the impacts of uncertain project duration and asymmetric risk sensitivity information on the structure of incentive contract and profits in project management where a risk‐neutral project manager (she) engages a risk‐averse contractor (he) to complete a project. The project manager offers a duration‐based incentive contract to the contractor to ensure that he invests his effort to shorten the project duration and reports his risk sensitivity information truthfully. Within the framework of principal‐agent theory, we first develop a duration‐based incentive contract model, and then derive the optimal contract mechanism by solving its equivalent optimal control problem with Pontryagin maximum principle. We show that if the contractor is highly risk averse and the project duration is highly volatile, the project manager should lower the penalty term to motivate the contractor to make duration‐reduction efforts. Moreover, comparing with the symmetric information scenario, we find that the project manager distorts the penalty term for all contractor's risk types (but the lowest) downward. Our results show that the project manager is more willing to acquire the contractor's risk sensitivity information under the uncertain project duration. The results also suggest that from the project manager's perspective, it is beneficial to have better information about the contractor's risk sensitivity by using a numerical analysis.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of uncertain project duration and asymmetric risk sensitivity information in project management

Yang

Zhao

Lan

2015

Int Trans Operational Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Qi, Hu, and Peng (2012) proposed a new adaptation method for the solution feature values of the retrieved cases by introducing the adaptability value to improve the adaptation performance. In addition, other revised techniques based on classical methods have been developed, such as expert experience (Fan et al, 2015;Petrovic, Mishra, & Sundar, 2011;Yan and Wang et al, 2014;Yan et al, 2012), genetic algorithm (GA) (Liao et al, 2012), multiple regression analysis (Jin, Cho, Hyun, & Son, 2012), interpolation tool (Henriet, Leni, Laurent, & Salomon, 2014), regression revision model using support vector machine (Han & Cao, 2015), grey relational analysis (Hu, Qi, & Peng, 2015) and so on. In the problem solving process using CBR, to some extent, these methods have made significant contributions to the evaluation and revision of the suggested solutions for the target cases from different perspectives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the existing studies, the case evaluation strategies mainly focused on the confidence assessment of the suggested solution (Chua & Tischer, 2004;Fan, Li, & Zhang, 2015;Garcia, Oroaco, Gonzàlez, & Arcos, 2007;Liao et al, 2012;Muhlbaier, Topalis, & Polikar, 2009). Chua and Tischer (2004) proposed a trustworthy region concept to realize the result evaluation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Muhlbaier et al (2009) introduced a consult and vote strategy to assess the confidence of the classification result. Fan et al (2015) let multiple project managers or experts analyze the related information and give their judgments according to their knowledge and experience. In addition, according to the cognition mechanism of human beings, case revision is usually processed by evaluating the suggested solution, reanalyzing the differences between the target case and the source case, then adjusting the solution repeatedly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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