Generation expansion planning in IEEE power system using probabilistic production simulation

Abstract

In this paper generation and transmission expansion planning of IEEE 300-BUS TEST SYSTEM using equivalent load duration curve is studied. To this end, equivalent load duration curve for each electricity region is calculated for years 1991 and 1996 using the expansion of the probability random distribution series. The criteria loss of load probability, expected energy not supplied, and capacity shortage are computed using equivalent load duration curves. Equivalent load duration curves and the above-mentioned criteria are calculated using convolution method to validate the results. Finally, generation and transmission expansion planning of the system is studied considering the computed criteria. We can suppose that random variable x is equal to x i with probabilityܲ . Ȗ, order moment of random variable x, is defined as follows:Cumulants of different orders of random variable x can be calculated from the following recursive relation [5]: