Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization

Ayoub, Ali T.; Kröger, Wolfgang; Sornette, Didier

doi:10.1016/j.net.2022.03.013

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 13 publications

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“…They are only as accurate or holistic as the scenarios and weights input by the user. Limits of imagination (Maechler & Graz, 2022), unknown knowns (Baissac, 2020), errors of commission (Ayoub et al., 2020), errors of omission (Caboral‐Stevens et al., 2020), and failure of sustained attention (Jun et al., 2021), among others are all sources of limitation to a human centric methodology such as a risk register.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enterprise risk management for automation in correctional facilities with pandemic and other stressors

et al. 2022

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Real-time tracking of tool and equipment inventories is a critical function of many organizations and sectors. For prisons and correctional facilities, tracking and monitoring of assets such as cookware, hardware, keys, janitorial equipment, vocational/technical specialty tools, etc., is essential for safety, security, trust, efficiency, education, etc. The performance of automated systems for this purpose can be diminished by a variety of emergent and future sociotechnical factors alone and in combination. This article introduces a methodology for contractor evaluation and selection in acquisition of innovative asset management systems, with an emphasis on evolving system requirements under uncertainty. The methodology features a scenariobased preferences analysis of emergent and future conditions that are disruptive to the performance of the asset-control system. The conditions are across technologies, operating environments, regulations, workforce behaviors, offender behaviors, prices and markets, organizations, cyber threats, etc. The methodology addresses the influence and interaction of the conditions to disrupt system priorities. Examples include: (i) infectious disease disrupting priorities among requirements and (ii) radio-frequency identification (RFID) and wireless-technology innovations disrupting priorities among stakeholders. The combinations of conditions that most and least matter for the system acquisition are characterized. The methodology constitutes a risk register for monitoring sources of risk to project performance, schedule, and cost throughout the system lifecycle. The results will be of interest to both practitioners and scholars engaged in systems acquisition as the pandemic interacts with other factors to affect risk, uncertainty, and resilience of organizational missions and operations.

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