Geographical Information System for Epidemiological Surveillance of Natural Focal Infectious Diseases in Combined Foci in the Territory of the Astrakhan Region

Сафронов, Валентин; Razdorskiy, A. S.; Skalenko, S. Yu.; Лопатин, А. А.; Kovtunov, A. I.; Piskunova, N. V.; Kologorov, A. I.; Kouklev, E. V.; Toporkov, V. P.

doi:10.21055/0370-1069-2010-3(105)-35-38

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The rodents carrying these diseases inhabit natural landscapes and can pose a serious threat to the local human population. Recently, several scientific articles showed the interplay between natural sources of disease and the conditions that allow multiple pathogens to circulate in tandem, which is possible due to the existence of a shared parasitic system (Popov et al., 2010 ; Safronov et al., 2010 ; Rudakov & Yastrebov, 2015 ; V. V. Shkarin et al., 2017 ; Varela et al., 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan

Rametov,

Steiner,

Bizhanova

et al. 2023

GeoHealth

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One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl region's central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary‐epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan

Rametov,

Steiner,

Bizhanova

et al. 2023

GeoHealth

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“…Электронная таблица импортирована в проект аналитической платформы Deductor Ent. версия 5.3 (сборка 088) для проведения статистического анализа [9]. Статистическая обработка данных выполнена с использованием общепринятых методов [10].…”

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Anti-epidemic effectiveness of sanitary and educational work with contingents at risk of plague infection in the Gorno-Altai high-mountain natural plague center

Куклев¹,

Toporkov²,

Мищенко³

et al. 2021

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Objective is to reduce the risk of infection of people with plague in the territory of a natural focus on the basis of the targeted public health educational work with risk groups.Materials and methods. In 2017, 30 visits were made by epidemiological groups to livestock farms in the epizootic zone to inform the population about the existing risks of plague infection and to conduct interviews to assess the level of alertness regarding the risk of the disease. Work was carried out with risk contingents with coverage of 1652 people (81% of the total number of people living in livestock camps).Results. It was found that 64% of the respondents knew about the danger of plague infection in the region. 91% are aware of the role of marmots in infecting people with plague. 96.3% of respondents are aware of the ban on hunting groundhogs, while 39% continue to prey upon the grey (Altai) groundhog. The identified gaps in the population’s alertness regarding the risk of plague infection were eliminated through active sanitary and educational work with the population.Conclusion. Direct work with the population, anti-epidemic groups, significantly affected the provision of epidemiological welfare as regards plague, which is confirmed by the absence of human plague cases in the natural focus in 2017-2019.

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“…в последующем в области регистрировались в основном спорадические случаи болезни [8,9,10], однако известны и вспышки инфекции [1,3,4,7]. поэтому весьма актуальна оценка современной эпидемиологической обстановки по кгл в астраханской области по риску заражения этой инфекцией на основе гис-технологий [11,12] Risk level of CHF infection: high -more than 30 per 100 thousand of the population; medium -20.1-30.0; low -10.1-20.0; very low -less than 10 per 100 thousand.…”

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Risk-Oriented Characteristics of Current Epidemiological Situation on Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever in the Astrakhan Region

Ковалевская¹,

Василькова²,

Агапов³

et al. 2018

Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii

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Geographical Information System for Epidemiological Surveillance of Natural Focal Infectious Diseases in Combined Foci in the Territory of the Astrakhan Region

Cited by 4 publications

References 2 publications

Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan

Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan

Anti-epidemic effectiveness of sanitary and educational work with contingents at risk of plague infection in the Gorno-Altai high-mountain natural plague center

Risk-Oriented Characteristics of Current Epidemiological Situation on Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever in the Astrakhan Region

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