Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide

Abstract

If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand may challenge system reliability. Using 39 years of hourly reanalysis data (1980–2018), we analyze the ability of solar and wind resources to meet electricity demand in 42 countries, varying the hypothetical scale and mix of renewable generation as well as energy storage capacity. Assuming perfect transmission and annual generation equal to annual demand, but no energy storage, we find the most reliable renewable electricity systems are wind-heavy and satisfy countries’ electricity demand in 72–91% of hours (83–94% by adding 12 h of storage). Yet even in systems which meet >90% of demand, hundreds of hours of unmet demand may occur annually. Our analysis helps quantify the power, energy, and utilization rates of additional energy storage, demand management, or curtailment, as well as the benefits of regional aggregation.

Diversity of options to eliminate fossil fuels and reach carbon neutrality across the entire European energy system

“…We first choose a set of metrics that quantify aspects that have received particular attention in energy policy debates, such as the uncertain role of energy storage in highly renewable energy systems 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 or the extent to which countries are electricity autarkic 32 ( Table 1 ). We formulate the metrics such that lower values are more preferable in a broad sense: more equally distributed infrastructure, less electrification (i.e., less consumer-level change), or less use of possibly problematic or controversial technologies like energy storage or biofuels.…”

Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization

“…By 2030, wind and solar power are expected to grow by 1.4-2.9% and 1.4-2.3%, respectively, across the world [9]. However, a power generation system that installs more renewable energy can lack reliability and stability due to the uncertainty and constraints of solar and wind power [14,15]. This is a great challenge for a low-carbon transition in the electricity sector.…”

“…Secondly, China has an endowment of coal resources, and thus coal still dominates as the main source of energy consumption [18], which has created further challenges for the energy transformation of China's electric system [5,19]. Thirdly, China's energy resources vary greatly from region to region, which produces a mismatch between energy distribution and energy demand, especially in the power system [14]. Fossil energy is mainly distributed in the north of China, and water resources are mainly distributed in the east of China [20].…”

Pieces of a puzzle: solar-wind power synergies on seasonal and diurnal timescales tend to be excellent worldwide

“…Due to the cost-competitive and environment-friendly nature of renewable electricity (RE) [2][3][4][5], specifically from solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power, RE has gained substantial attention as an alternative to fossil fuel-based power generation and supply to electricity grids around the world [6]. According to the 2021 annual report on renewable capacity statistics by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), more than 80% of all new electricity capacity added in 2020 was for renewable power generation, with solar PV and wind power plants accounting for 91% of this added RE capacity [7].…”

“…However, the variable and uncertain nature of wind and solar resources makes it difficult to design and operate a highly reliable electricity system that is majorly dependent on these renewable resources [5,8,9]. This variability leads to mismatches between supply and demand of electricity, which calls for electricity storage and hence require additional investments.…”