Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions

Abstract

Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

“…The result of this study conforms with the previous study conducted by Salvacion and Martin (2016) where changes in rainfall and temperature resulted to decrease in climatic suitability of corn in the province of Isabela, Philippines. In addition, it also agrees with different studies elsewhere that the effect of climate change on suitability varies across area (Bonfante et al 2015, Chemura et al 2015, Jayathilaka et al 2012, Lane, Jarvis 2007, Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015, RamirezCabral et al 2016, Wang et al 2015, Zabel et al 2014. On the other hand, it also shows that the effect of climate change on crop suitability varies across time (months) or depending on the start of cropping period.…”

“…First, climate change affects crop yield because changes in rainfall and temperature affect crop growth and development (Antón et al 2013, Ewert et al 2015, Holzkämper et al 2015, Islam et al 2012, Kim et al 2016, Ko,Ahuja 2014, Yan-Ling et al 2012. Second, changes on existing climate in an area can alter crop suitability in the region (Bonfante et al 2015, Chemura et al 2015, Jayathilaka et al 2012, Lane, Jarvis 2007, Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015, Ramirez-Cabral et al 2016, Wang et al 2015, Zabel et al 2014.…”

Addressing future trade-offs between biodiversity and cropland expansion to improve food security

“…We determine the available energy, water, and nutrient supply for agricultural suitability from climate, soil, and topography data, by applying the global dataset of crop suitability from a fuzzy logic approach by Zabel et al (2014). It considers 16 economically important staple and energy crops at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds.…”

A global approach to estimate irrigated areas – a comparison between different data and statistics

“…Agricultural suitability data are taken from Zabel et al (2014). The data describe the suitability for 16 staple, energy and forage crops (Table 3) 2010 (Zabel et al, 2014).…”

“…The data describe the suitability for 16 staple, energy and forage crops (Table 3) 2010 (Zabel et al, 2014). Soil properties are not considered in this approach, because human activities may alter soil properties, for example through fertilizer and manure application or soil tillage.…”