Global Environmental Changes in South Asia

Mitra, A. P.; Sharma, Chandan

doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-9913-7

Cited by 8 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Predicting floods and droughts is important in developing mitigation strategies to manage their impact. The planning of emergency responses and early warning systems rely on flood and drought forecasts at hourly to seasonal time scales (Mizra and Ahmed 2010). Climate change models simulate the future impact of greenhouse gases based on the current understanding of atmospheric physics and chemistry (Hannah 2015).…”

Section: Climate Change Modelling For Drought and Flooding Weather Pa...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Food Security in Africa with a Predictive Early Warning System on Extreme Weather Phenomena

Igobwa¹,

Gachanja²,

Muriithi³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Climate change is predicted to exacerbate Africa’s, already, precarious food security. Climate models, by accurately forecasting future weather events, can be a critical tool in developing countermeasures to reduce crop loss, decrease adverse effects on animal husbandry and fishing, and even help insurance companies determine risk for agricultural insurance policies – a measure of risk reduction in the agricultural sector that is gaining prominence. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of various open-source climate change models and weather datasets in predicting drought and flood weather patterns in northern and western Kenya and discuss practical applications of these tools in the country’s agricultural insurance sector. We identified two models that may be used to predict flood and drought events in these regions. The combination of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and weather station data was the most effective in predicting future drought occurrences in Turkana and Wajir with accuracies ranging from 78% to 90%. In the case of flood forecasting, Isolation Forests models using weather station data had the best overall performance. The above models and datasets may form the basis of a more objective and accurate underwriting process for agricultural index-based insurance, as we expound in the paper.

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Section: Climate Change Modelling For Drought and Flooding Weather Pa...mentioning

confidence: 99%