Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

Dao, Thu Hien; Docquier, Frédéric; Maurel, Mathilde; Schaus, Pierre

doi:10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1

Cited by 37 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Subject to a conflict, their point estimates suggest that existence of conflict increases the outflows of asylum seekers by 100 to 150%. Similar findings were reported in Dao et al (2018), who…”

Section: Channels Of Transmissionsupporting

confidence: 91%

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Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

et al. 2019

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Section: Channels Of Transmissionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…To account for conflicts over ressources, we follow Dao et al (2018) who show that severe armed conflicts increase the emigration stock twofold in the long-term. In our model, migration decisions from region r • are governed by:…”

Section: B Additional Results With Slow-onset Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

et al. 2019

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“…The calibrated moving costs (reflecting all legal barriers as well as the private monetary and psychical costs of moving) are such that the model perfectly matches international mobility and urbanization data from the last 30 years. The backcasting exercises conducted in Dao et al (2018) and Burzyński et al (2020) demonstrate that such a model accurately fits the past migration trends and generates sensible projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

The geography of climate migration

2021

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In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

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“…Kim and Cohen (2010), in their analysis of migration flows to a selection of advanced countries, validate the strong influence of source and destination countries' population sizes in absorbing and sending migrants. A study by Dao et al (2018), based on nearly a half century of migration data across the world, finds that demographic factors govern migratory flows and exert greater influence than socioeconomic factors. Advanced economies drawing significant shares of migrants of Asian origin are facing population aging and reviewing and revising their immigration systems to recruit more migrant workers in health and care services, domestic work, construction, and knowledge-intensive sectors.…”

Section: A Factors Driving Movement Of Peoplementioning

confidence: 99%

International Migration in Asia and the Pacific - Determinants and Role of Economic Integration

Kikkawa¹,

Gaspar

Park

2019

SSRN Journal

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The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

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Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

Cited by 37 publications

References 63 publications

Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

The geography of climate migration

International Migration in Asia and the Pacific - Determinants and Role of Economic Integration

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