Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana

Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K.; Owusu, Mark A.; Jin, Zhen; Oduro, Francis T.; Abidemi, Afeez; Gyasi, Esther Opoku

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110103

Cited by 186 publications

(164 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…where, constants w i , i = 1, 2, ..., 5 are positive weights required to balance the corresponding terms in the objective functional. Following other literature on COVID-19 control problems [9,16,17,40,41], quadratic costs on the controls are chosen, where 1/2w 4 u 2 1 (t) is the total cost of implementing the preventive measure, and 1/2w 5 u 2 2 (t) is the total cost of managing active cases over the time interval [0,…”

Section: Optimal Control Model and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is important to determine the most cost-effective optimal control measure among the single and combined implementation of the two given control measures in order to optimally mitigate the spread of COVID-19 at the lowest cost possible. Hence, cost-effectiveness analysis is explored using the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) [9,24,46,47,48]. To avoid dissipation of available limited resources, ICER is used to compare any two competing measures for controlling the spread of disease or related problems.…”

Section: Cost-effectiveness Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical modelling and optimal cost-effective control of COVID-19 transmission dynamics

Olaniyi

Obabiyi

Okosun

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains the current global health challenge. In this paper, an epidemic model based on system of ordinary differential equations is formulated by taking into account the transmission routes from symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized individuals. The model is fitted to the corresponding cumulative number of hospitalized individuals (active cases) reported by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), and parameterized using the least squares method. The basic reproduction number which measures the potential spread of COVID-19 in the population is computed using the next generation operator method. Further, Lyapunov function is constructed to investigate the stability of the model around a disease-free equilibrium point. It is shown that the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium if the basic reproduction number of the novel coronavirus transmission is less than one. Sensitivities of the model to changes in parameters are explored. It is revealed further that the basic reproduction number can be brought to a value less than one in Nigeria, if the current effective transmission rate of the disease can be reduced by 50%. Otherwise, the number of active cases may get up to 2.5% of the total estimated population. In addition, two time-dependent control variables, namely preventive and management measures, are considered to mitigate the damaging effects of the disease using Pontryagin's maximum principle. The most cost-effective control measure is determined through cost-effectiveness analysis. Numerical simulations of the overall system are implemented in MatLab® for demonstration of the theoretical results.

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Section: Optimal Control Model and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cost-effectiveness Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical modelling and optimal cost-effective control of COVID-19 transmission dynamics

Olaniyi

Obabiyi

Okosun

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The authors used Pakistan's actual data and discussed the potential control and infection removal from Pakistan. In [14], where potential removal of the virus was discussed, the data from Ghana and its study using a mathematical model were taken into consideration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design of nonstandard computational method for stochastic susceptible–infected–treated–recovered dynamics of coronavirus model

et al. 2020

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The current effort is devoted to investigating and exploring the stochastic nonlinear mathematical pandemic model to describe the dynamics of the novel coronavirus. The model adopts the form of a nonlinear stochastic susceptible-infected-treated-recovered system, and we investigate the stochastic reproduction dynamics, both analytically and numerically. We applied different standard and nonstandard computational numerical methods for the solution of the stochastic system. The design of a nonstandard computation method for the stochastic system is innovative. Unfortunately, standard computation numerical methods are time-dependent and violate the structure properties of models, such as positivity, boundedness, and dynamical consistency of the stochastic system. To that end, convergence analysis of nonstandard computational methods and simulation with a comparison of standard computational methods are presented.

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“…The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Africa was reported from Egypt on 14 th February 2020 [10] and in sub-Saharan Africa from Nigeria on 28 th February 2020 [11]. Ghana recorded its first confirmed case of COVID-19 on 12 th March 2020 [12]. Following this, all suspected cases of COVID-19 were confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) as recommended by the WHO [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Ghana; Insights from Whole Genome Sequencing

Sylverken¹,

El-Duah²,

Owusu³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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In regions lacking genomic data, analysis of sequences from the early stages of an outbreak can provide important insights into the diversity of pathogens present. Following the detection of the first imported case of COVID-19 in the Northern sector of Ghana on 13th March 2020, we have now molecularly characterized and phylogenetically analysed sequences including three (3) complete genomes of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) isolated from nine (9) patients observed in Ghana. Eight (8) of these patients reported with a recent history of foreign travel and one (1) with no history of foreign travel. We performed high throughput sequencing for 9 samples following the determination of high concentration of viral RNA. In addition, we estimated the potential impact that long distance transportation of samples to testing centres may have on sequencing outcomes. Here, two samples that were closest in terms of viral RNA concentration but transported from sites which are over 400km apart were assessed. All sequences were compared to previous sequences from Ghana and representative sequences from regions where our patients had previously travelled. Complete genomes were obtained for three (3) sequences and with another near complete genome with a coverage of 95.6%. Sequences with coverage in excess of 80% were found to belong to three lineages namely A, B.1 and B.2. Our sequences clustered in two different clades with the majority falling within a clade composed of sequences from sub-Saharan Africa. Less RNA fragmentation was seen in sample KATH23 which was collected 9km compared with sample TTH6 which was collected and transported over a distance of 400km to the testing site. The clustering of several sequences from sub-Saharan Africa suggests regional circulation of the viruses in the subregion. Importantly, there may be the need to decentralize testing sites and build more capacity across Africa to boost the sequencing output of the subregion.

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Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana

Abstract: Highlights COVID-19 spread dynamics with environmental compartment is proposed. Global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria was obtain using Lyapunov’s function. Global sensitivity analysis was studied. A cost-effectiveness analysis presented.

Cited by 186 publications

References 34 publications

Mathematical modelling and optimal cost-effective control of COVID-19 transmission dynamics

Mathematical modelling and optimal cost-effective control of COVID-19 transmission dynamics

Design of nonstandard computational method for stochastic susceptible–infected–treated–recovered dynamics of coronavirus model

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Ghana; Insights from Whole Genome Sequencing

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