Global survey method in real time and space weather forecasting

Grigoryev, Vladislav; Starodubtsev, S. A.

doi:10.3103/s1062873815050226

Cited by 21 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The creation and development of the international neutron monitor database NMDB [http://www01.nmdb. eu] opened up the possibility for using the global survey method in real time [Grigoryev, Starodubtsev, 2015]. This eventually led to the development of a method for real-time short-term (from several hours to ~1 day) forecasting of geomagnetic storms with the Dst index less than -50 nT.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Monitoring of Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Parameters and Short-Term Forecasting of Geomagnetic Disturbances

Zverev

Grigoryev

Gololobov

et al. 2020

Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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SB RAS, using data from the NMDB database, has implemented continuous monitoring of the dynamics of cosmic ray (CR) distribution parameters and the automatic forecasting of geomagnetic disturbance. Monitoring is based on the global survey method, which considers the world-wide network of neutron monitors as a single device oriented in different directions at each measured time. This method provides real-time parameters of nine components of the first two angular moments of the CR distribution function for each hour of observation. This paper discusses methodological aspects related to the use of the global survey method and some results of the forecasting of geomagnetic disturbances for 2017–2018.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Monitoring of Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Parameters and Short-Term Forecasting of Geomagnetic Disturbances

Zverev

Grigoryev

Gololobov

et al. 2020

Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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“…act as a single multidirectional device. Using the results obtained by this method, we have examined the behavior of the CR diurnal anisotropy vector 11 A  before onsets of geomagnetic storms with Dst≤ -5 0 nT , observed in 2012-2013 [ Grigoryev, Starodubtsev, 2015]. We have established that over a period from several hours to days before onsets of most geomagnetic storms, 11 A  exhibits characteristic variations, which are not observed during periods of quiet SW.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances using the global survey method in real time

Григорьев¹,

Grigoryev

Starodubtsev³

et al. 2019

Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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A method for forecasting geomagnetic storms using the realization of the global survey method in real time is presented. The method is based on data from the worldwide network of neutron monitors NMDB. Using this method, we analyze the behavior of components of three-dimensional angular distribution of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium, which were due to the first two spherical harmonics, over the period from 2013 to 2018. We have established that the main parameters that respond to the arrival of geoeffective disturbances of the interplanetary medium at Earth are changes in amplitudes of zonal (north-south) components of cosmic ray distribution. In order to select effective criteria for identifying predictors of geomagnetic disturbances and their possible temporal variations, we have made a retrospective analysis of the relationship between behaviors of the above components and geomagnetic disturbances occurring during the period of interest.

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“…The method of global survey developed at the ShICRA SB RAS [1], which is based on measurements of the world-wide network of neutron monitors, allows to precisely define the first 9 components of function of angular distribution of cosmic rays (CR) for each hour of observations. Creation and development of the neutron monitor network database NMDB (http://www.nmdb.eu) enables using the method in real-time mode [2] that is of considerably interest for space weather forecasting. In the work [2], the behavior of radial X11 and azimuthal Y11 components of the first harmonic of angular distribution (or diurnal anisotropy) of galactic CR before the beginning of geomagnetic storm with Dst ≤ -50 nT was investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Creation and development of the neutron monitor network database NMDB (http://www.nmdb.eu) enables using the method in real-time mode [2] that is of considerably interest for space weather forecasting. In the work [2], the behavior of radial X11 and azimuthal Y11 components of the first harmonic of angular distribution (or diurnal anisotropy) of galactic CR before the beginning of geomagnetic storm with Dst ≤ -50 nT was investigated. It was found that in the time interval from couple hours to 2 days before the beginning of most geomagnetic storms the components of diurnal anisotropy vector revealed distinctive changes which were not observed during periods of quiet solar wind.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavior of zonal components of CR distribution during periods of solar wind disturbances

Gololobov¹,

Grigoryev²,

Starodubtsev³

2017

Proceedings of 35th International Cosmic Ray Conference — PoS(ICRC2017)

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Global survey method in real time and space weather forecasting

Cited by 21 publications

References 3 publications

Real-Time Monitoring of Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Parameters and Short-Term Forecasting of Geomagnetic Disturbances

Real-Time Monitoring of Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Parameters and Short-Term Forecasting of Geomagnetic Disturbances

Monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances using the global survey method in real time

Behavior of zonal components of CR distribution during periods of solar wind disturbances

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