Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The observed area covers Germany and Austria up to 2025. Since the main effects of climate change in this region are expected to be caused through changes in the watercycle, we place a special focus on the exemplary region of the upper Danube catchment area. Industry is the main regional user of water resources. Water is an essential production factor and is used in almost every production process of a manufactured good. We apply estimates of regional production functions, based on AFiD-panel micro-data for Germany, to calibrate regional industrial production and water usage within DANUBIA. Thus, we are able to simulate region-specific effects of climate change and the impact of social scenarios using an unprecedented model of reciprocal influences of a huge network of interdisciplinary research areas. Simulation results show wide regional differences in production site reactions as well as between differing scenarios. Comparing scenarios of moderate and serious climate change, we are able to illustrate the severe environmental effects in some regions and to determine considerable economic effects on regional economic growth. Terms of use: Documents inJEL Code: D24, R30, Q01, Q25, Q52, Q53.