Grounding Social Foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change

Mathias, Jean‐Denis; Debeljak, Marko; Deffuant, Guillaume; Diemer, Arnaud; Dierickx, Florian; Donges, Jonathan F.; Gladkykh, Ganna; Heitzig, Jobst; Holtz, Georg; Obergassel, Wolfgang; Pellaud, Francine; Sánchez, Ángel; Trajanov, Aneta; Videira, Nuno

doi:10.1029/2020ef001573

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Recent approaches for understanding such dynamics with classic integrated assessment models (IAMs) use a class of simple WES models that are a standard tool for climate policy (van Vuuren et al 2016, Mathias et al 2020, Keppo et al 2021. They typically consist of a low-complexity ES model driven by a neoclassical economic growth model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

Anderies

Barfuß

Donges

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The Anthropocene is characterized by the strengthening of planetary-scale interactions between the biophysical Earth system and human societies. This increasing social-ecological entanglement poses new challenges for studying possible future World-Earth system trajectories and World-Earth resilience defined as the capacity of the system to absorb and regenerate from anthropogenic stresses such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes. The World-Earth system is currently in a non-equilibrium transitional regime of the early Anthropocene with arguably no plausible possibilities of remaining in Holocene-like conditions while sheltering up to 10 billion humans without risk of undermining the resilience of the Earth system. We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth resilience to examine this risk. Because conventional ball-and-cup type notions of resilience are hampered by the rapid and open-ended social, cultural, economic and technological evolution of human societies, we focus on the notion of `pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow the World-Earth system to move from the currently occupied transitional states towards a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We formalize this conceptualization mathematically and provide a foundation to explore how interactions between Earth system resilience (biophysical processes) and World system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our analysis shows the critical importance of building Earth system resilience to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of World system dynamics by showing how perceptions of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience. The framework provides a starting point for the analysis of World-Earth resilience that can be extended to more complex model settings as well as the development of quantitative planetary-scale resilience indicators to guide sustainable development in a stabilized Earth system.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

Anderies

Barfuß

Donges

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Recognition of these weaknesses has driven efforts to combine data at finer scales or from outside tightly constrained economic parameters [49][50][51]. For example, the Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) tool has incorporated natural-and social science-derived data [52].…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Rabett

Morimoto²,

Kahlert³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia’s most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta’s southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.5 and SSP2–4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.

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“…Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are a class of WES models that are a standard tool for climate policy (Keppo et al 2021, Mathias et al 2020, van Vuuren et al 2016) and typically consist of some low-complexity ES model driven by some more detailed neoclassical growth model. They may have aggregate ES and WS systems (e.g., (Nordhaus 1993)) or some spatial decomposition in the ES and some sectoral decomposition in the WS (e.g., (Nordhaus & Yang 1996)).…”

Section: Resilience and Integrated Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity

Anderies¹,

Barfuß²,

Donges³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth System resilience. Our notion of World-Earth System resilience emphasizes the need to move beyond the basin of attraction notion of resilience as we are not in a basin we can stay in. We are on a trajectory to a new basin and we have to avoid falling into undesirable basins. We thus focus on 'pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow us to move from the transitional operating space we occupy now as we leave the Holocene basin to a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We develop a mathematical model to formalize this conceptualization and demonstrate how interactions between earth system resilience (biophysical processes) and world system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our findings show that building earth system resilience is probably our only chance to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of world system dynamics by showing how the notion of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience.

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Grounding Social Foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change

Cited by 16 publications

References 21 publications

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity

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