Gypsy moth response to landscape structure differs from neutral model predictions: implications for invasion monitoring

Nesslage, Geneviève M.; Maurer, Bill; Gage, Stuart H.

doi:10.1007/s10530-006-9061-1

Cited by 11 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 34 publications

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“…Dispersal is also affected by landscape heterogeneity or by changing habitats or environments (Nesslage et al, 2007; Neupane & Powell, 2015; Soons et al, 2004). Such situations are often modeled by applying the metapopulation concept (Hanski, 1998), where a landscape is partitioned into suitable and unsuitable patches and dispersal is quantified as the demographic connectivity among subpopulations.…”

Section: Dispersal: the Driver Of Invasion Spreadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Pepin

Davis

Epanchin‐Niell

et al. 2022

Ecological Applications

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Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

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Section: Dispersal: the Driver Of Invasion Spreadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Pepin

Davis

Epanchin‐Niell

et al. 2022

Ecological Applications

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Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate‐finding failure

Walter

Firebaugh

Tobin

et al. 2016

Ecology

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Range expansions are a function of population growth and dispersal, and nascent populations often must overcome demographic Allee effects (positive density dependence at low population densities) driven by factors such as mate-finding failure. Given the importance of individual movement to mate finding, links between landscape structure and movement may be critical to range expansion; however, landscape effects on other factors including mortality may be equally or more important. In one of the most comprehensive investigations of the interactions of these processes to date, we combined field experiments, simulation modeling, and analysis of empirical spread patterns to investigate how landscape structure affected the spread of the gypsy moth in Virginia and West Virginia. In experiments designed to assess how landscape attributes affect mate finding, we found adult males resisted leaving forest patches and the probability of locating a pheromone source declined more rapidly over distance in non-forest matrix than in forest. We used these findings to develop individual-based simulation models of gypsy moth population dynamics and spread in complex patch-matrix landscapes. The models produced an Allee effect that strengthened with reductions in forested area, but owing more so to dispersal mortality than to effects on mate location. Predicted maximum rates of population spread grew with increases in forest area due to increasing success of long-distance transport events. Evaluations of empirical data showed relationships between spread rates and landscape structure largely consistent with model predictions. We conclude rates of spread were largely driven by long-distance dispersal events, the success of which was influenced primarily by dispersal mortality of larvae in unsuitable matrix, and that landscape effects on mate location played a secondary role. Though influences of landscape structure on mate location appear to be unimportant to the spread of the gypsy moth, we predict they would have stronger effects on more dispersive species.

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Introduction to Models

Turner

Gardner

2015

Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice

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Gypsy moth response to landscape structure differs from neutral model predictions: implications for invasion monitoring

Cited by 11 publications

References 34 publications

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate‐finding failure

Introduction to Models

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