Habitat suitability of Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Iran in future

Ebrahimi, Amir; Farashi, Azita; Rashki, Alireza

doi:10.1007/s12665-017-7040-8

Cited by 53 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The value of the AUC ranges from 0 to 1. An AUC value of 0.5 shows that model predictions are not better than random, 0.5-0.7 indicates poor performance, 0.7-0.9 indicates reasonable/moderate performance and >0.9 indicates high performance [27,28]. In this study, the average AUC for ten replicate runs was 0.869, so the accuracy estimate of the model is acceptable (Figure 1).…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 62%

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The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China

Zhou

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Spring maize (Zea mays L.) is a thermophilic C4 crop which is sensitive to climate change. This paper provides a detailed assessment of the effect of climate change on the crop from a new perspective, by predicting the probability of the potential distribution of spring maize across China. The affected area of spring maize suitability was identified, and then the affected area was subdivided into the improved area and the deteriorated area. Our results confirmed that there was a detrimental consequence for spring maize suitability under observed climate change from 1961–1990 to 1981–2010. However, our results revealed that warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2 °C were helpful for the suitable area expansion of spring maize. The affected area was smaller under warming scenarios than under historical climate change, revealing that temperature rise alone was not enough to trigger a “tipping point” (a threshold value after which abrupt shifts occur) for spring maize, even if warming is 2 °C above the level of 1961–1990. Our results not only benefit China in the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies, but also provide a theoretical judgement that the impact of global warming on the crop ecosystem is not serious if other climate factors remain unchanged.

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Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 10 performance and >0.9 indicates high performance [27,28]. In this study, the average AUC for ten replicate runs was 0.869, so the accuracy estimate of the model is acceptable (Figure 1).…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 65%

The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China

Zhou

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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“…Although preference of males and juveniles was not supported at fine scales, loss of a single male or juvenile by a household can undermine the family income relying on breeding and replenishment of less productive cattle. As the Hyrcanian forest is a biodiversity hotspot and a key area for leopard conservation (Ebrahimi et al., ; Farashi & Shariati, ; Farashi et al., ) which needs better protection (Mehri et al., ), we hope that this practice will reduce conflicts and improve conservation status of this region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study is novel in terms of research findings and practical applications, in Iran and beyond. Also, this study is timely and important because Iran is the stronghold country for the globally endangered leopard subspecies in the Middle East, the Persian leopard ( Panthera pardus saxicolor ) (Figure ; Ebrahimi, Farashi, & Rashki, ; Khorozyan, ), the Hyrcanian forest represents the most continuous and most suitable habitat for leopard (Ebrahimi et al., ; Farashi & Shariati, ; Farashi, Shariati, & Hosseini, ), and retaliatory anthropogenic mortality from depredation is among the main threats to leopard survival in Iran and the region (Ghoddousi et al., ; Soofi et al., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cattle selectivity by leopards suggests ways to mitigate human–leopard conflict

Khorozyan

Ghoddousi²,

Soufi

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Addressing widespread livestock losses to carnivores requires information on which livestock categories are preferentially selected. We analyzed an individual‐based database of cattle grazing in forest (n = 932) and having been killed (n = 70) by leopards (Panthera pardus) in the Hyrcanian forest, Iran. We calculated Jacobs’ selectivity index for cattle age, sex, and coloration across four scales: the study area as a whole, three sites, nine villages, and 60 cattle owners. Naturally colored cattle were significantly preferred by leopards at all scales in comparison with black and black‐and‐white cattle, and there was also a preference for males and juveniles at the study area level. More research is needed to see whether cattle losses would decrease if the share of naturally colored individuals in local holdings was reduced and males and juveniles had limited access to forest. We conclude that phenotypic and biologic characteristics of livestock can affect depredation and appeal for more research in this direction, particularly within the predator–prey framework.

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“…[10][11][12], habitat destruction [e.g. [13][14][15] and reduced prey availability [16,17] have severely impacted the distribution of this elusive predator, and leopards are now extinct in large parts of their historic Asian and African distribution ( Fig. 1) [7,18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) and its extinct Eurasian populations

Paijmans

Barlow

Foerster

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Background: Resolving the historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) is a complex issue, because patterns inferred from fossils and from molecular data lack congruence. Fossil evidence supports an African origin, and suggests that leopards were already present in Eurasia during the Early Pleistocene. Analysis of DNA sequences however, suggests a more recent, Middle Pleistocene shared ancestry of Asian and African leopards. These contrasting patterns led researchers to propose a two-stage hypothesis of leopard dispersal out of Africa: an initial Early Pleistocene colonisation of Asia and a subsequent replacement by a second colonisation wave during the Middle Pleistocene. The status of Late Pleistocene European leopards within this scenario is unclear: were these populations remnants of the first dispersal, or do the last surviving European leopards share more recent ancestry with their African counterparts?Results: In this study, we generate and analyse mitogenome sequences from historical samples that span the entire modern leopard distribution, as well as from Late Pleistocene remains. We find a deep bifurcation between African and Eurasian mitochondrial lineages (~710 Ka), with the European ancient samples as sister to all Asian lineages (~483 Ka). The modern and historical mainland Asian lineages share a relatively recent common ancestor (~122 Ka), and we find one Javan sample nested within these. Conclusions:The phylogenetic placement of the ancient European leopard as sister group to Asian leopards suggests that these populations originate from the same out-of-Africa dispersal which founded the Asian lineages. The coalescence time found for the mitochondrial lineages aligns well with the earliest undisputed fossils in Eurasia, and thus encourages a re-evaluation of the identification of the much older putative leopard fossils from the region. The relatively recent ancestry of all mainland Asian leopard lineages suggests that these populations underwent a severe population bottleneck during the Pleistocene. Finally, although only based on a single sample, the unexpected phylogenetic placement of the Javan leopard could be interpreted as evidence for exchange of mitochondrial lineages between Java and mainland Asia, calling for further investigation into the evolutionary history of this subspecies.

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Habitat suitability of Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Iran in future

Cited by 53 publications

References 48 publications

The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China

The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China

Cattle selectivity by leopards suggests ways to mitigate human–leopard conflict

Historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) and its extinct Eurasian populations

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