Halting and Reversing Escalation in the South China Sea: A Bargaining Framework

Abstract

Escalating tensions in South China Sea have epitomized US-China relations for nearly a decade. Warning signs of a possible collision between a rising China and steadfast US, bring to light the need to think about ways that can halt and reverse the intensification of their confrontational moves. The historical trends regarding the freedom of the seas suggest that a way out of this predicament is possible through negotiations. The tenets of the freedom of the seas seem to prevail once they begin to serve the challenger's interest. Yet, the path toward interest alignment between the challenger and the norm-maker, in this case between China and the US, depends on their ability to avoid any miscalculation that can provoke further escalation of tensions, which in turn may lead to violent confrontation between nuclear powers. A particular historical precedent between the US and Soviet Union demonstrates that a compromised solution can be found in upholding the normative framework based on the Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS). Emulating this approach may help the parties to avoid an unnecessary and avoidable military gamble in South China Sea. Policy Implications • As history shows, freedom of the seas will prevail once it serves the challenger's interests. China's spectacular rise will eventually tip cost-benefit considerations in favor of this regime. No regime other than freedom of the seas could yield higher returns for a seafaring power with global interests. China already avails itself of the freedom of navigation principles the US supports. It would not be in China's own interest to subvert a regime that underpins its capacity to project power globally and serves well its growing ambitions.

Strategi China Dalam Melindungi Keamanan Nasionalnya di Wilayah Sengketa Laut China Selatan

“…Kebangkitan kekuatan ekonomi, politik hingga militer China menyebabkan Beijing mampu untuk mempertahankan resistensi yang lemah terhadap tekanan normatif dalam bentuk apapun sembari melakukan pengelolaan untuk mengubah keadaan kontekstual saat ini dengan power dan negosiasi. Penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Vulkovic ini membantu penulis dalam melihat faktor sejarah dalam mempertahankan Laut China Selatan digunakan oleh China untuk melakukan klaim, namun di saat yang bersamaan berupaya untuk menghindari pertaruhan militer yang tidak perlu, sehingga perlu untuk dihindari di LCS dengan latent power dan negosiasi yang dilakukan Beijing (Vuković & Alfieri, 2020).…”

Foreign space activities in Argentina: Geopolitical imaginaries on the role of China and Europe in the national press (2007–2016)

“…China is quickly growing its influence here in our hemisphere" (Faller, March 16, 2021). The construction of China either as the "other" or as a "threat" drives the foreign policy of the United States and other Western countries (Agnew, 2010); it thus triggers conflicts in regions such as the South China Sea (McCoy, 2016;Vuković & Alfieri, 2020).…”