Has Smoking Cessation Increased? An Examination of the US Adult Smoking Cessation Rate 1990–2014

Méndez, David; Tam, Jamie; Giovino, Gary A.; Tsodikov, Alexander; Warner, Kenneth E.

doi:10.1093/ntr/ntw239

Cited by 23 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The decline of U.S adult smoking rates has accelerated in recent years [ 75 ]. In this study, 16% of smokers in 2015 had stopped smoking a year later.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are electronic nicotine delivery systems helping cigarette smokers quit? Evidence from a prospective cohort study of U.S. adult smokers, 2015–2016

et al. 2018

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BackgroundThe potential of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) to reduce the cardiovascular and other disease risks of smoking is of great interest. While many smokers report using ENDS for cessation, their impact under real-world use patterns and conditions on adult smokers’ quitting behavior is uncertain. The objective of this study was to generate more recent and comprehensive evidence on the effect of “real world” ENDS use on the population quit rates of adult smokers while taking account of frequency and duration of use, device type, e-liquid flavor, and reasons for use.Methods and findingsWe conducted a population-based, prospective cohort study of a random probability sample of 1284 U.S. adult smokers recruited in August/September 2015 and re-contacted one-year later (September 2016) from GfK’s KnowledgePanel, a national, probability-based web-panel designed to be representative of non-institutionalized U.S. adults. Among the 1081 baseline smokers who remained members of KnowledgePanel, 858 completed the follow-up survey. The primary outcome was smoking abstinence for at least 30 days prior to follow-up. Secondary outcomes were making a quit attempt during the 12-month study period and number of cigarettes smoked per day at follow-up. The adjusted odds of quitting smoking were lower for those that used ENDS at baseline (9.4%, 95% CI = 5.22%-16.38%; AOR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.13–0.72) compared to smokers who did not use at ENDS (18.9%, 95% CI = 14.24%-24.68%). Smokers who used ENDS daily at some point during the study period were also less likely to quit smoking than nonusers (AOR = 0.17; 95% CI = 0.04–0.82). Limited ability to draw causal inferences from the observational design and a lack of biochemical verification of quitting smoking or ENDS use are limitations of this study.ConclusionsWe found no evidence that ENDS use, within context of the 2015–2016 US regulatory and tobacco/vaping market landscape, helped adult smokers quit at rates higher than smokers who did not use these products. Absent any meaningful changes, ENDS use among adult smokers is unlikely to be a sufficient solution to obtaining a meaningful increase in population quit rates. Additional research is needed to reconcile the divergent literature and monitor the impact of ENDS in an environment of rapidly evolving markets and regulatory policies.

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“…The decline of U.S adult smoking rates has accelerated in recent years [ 75 ]. In this study, 16% of smokers in 2015 had stopped smoking a year later.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are electronic nicotine delivery systems helping cigarette smokers quit? Evidence from a prospective cohort study of U.S. adult smokers, 2015–2016

et al. 2018

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“…Tobacco use, obesity, longstanding type 2 diabetes, and heavy use of alcohol are associated with significant increases in risk for pancreatic cancer . The smoking rate in China is much higher than in Western countries . On the contrary, the obesity rate in China is much lower than in Western countries .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[21][22][23][24] The smoking rate in China is much higher than in Western countries. 25,26 On the contrary, the obesity rate in China is much lower than in Western countries. 27 Thus, the risk factors for pancreatic cancer is complicated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of pancreatic cystic lesions detected by magnetic resonance imaging in the Chinese population

Sun

Wang

Jiang

et al. 2019

J of Gastro and Hepatol

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Background and Aim Incidental pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are being diagnosed more frequently. However, little is known about the prevalence of PCLs in the Chinese population. The aim of the study was to assess the crude prevalence of PCLs in individuals who underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods Data from consecutive patients who underwent MRI without pancreatic indications were included. MRI images were reviewed for the presence of pancreatic cysts. The prevalence of PCLs and high‐risk PCLs in different gender and age groups was calculated. To assess the crude prevalence, the prevalence and demographic data were standardized on the basis of Chinese national population data in 2017. Results A total of 10 987 individuals were included (7344 men). Incidental PCLs were identified in 212 individual (128 men). The prevalence of PCLs was 1.93%, and PCLs were more often discovered in women (1.74% vs 2.31%, P = 0.043). Prevalence increased with age (r = 0.804, P < 0.001). The prevalence of high‐risk PCLs was 0.12% (n = 13). Gender predominance and age distribution showed no difference between high‐risk PCLs and low‐risk PCLs (P = 0.234 and P = 0.855), but cysts located in the pancreatic head were more likely to develop into high‐risk PCLs (P = 0.001). After data standardization, the crude prevalence of PCLs was 1.31%, and PCLs were more often discovered in women (1.11% vs 1.5%, P < 0.001). The crude prevalence of high‐risk PCLs was 0.07%. Conclusion Pancreatic cystic lesions in the Chinese population are not rare. The prevalence of PCLs increased with age and is higher in the female population. The prevalence of high‐risk PCLs should not be ignored.

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“…We first introduce a dynamic equation describing the number of smokers in the population at time t. From previous work, we know [26]. S ( t ) represents the number of smokers in the population at time t, and denotes .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Finding the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking prevalence

Sun

Méndez

2019

PLoS ONE

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There are more than one billion smokers globally according to the World Health Organization (WHO) report in 2017. Every year tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths worldwide. To deal with the smoking epidemic, society needs to invest resources efficiently. In this paper we introduce an optimal control model to determine the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking. We construct the model to reach a smoking prevalence target within a specific time horizon while minimizing cost. Our performance measure captures the cost of policy implementation over time, adjusting for inflation and social discounting. The analytical solutions to the model are presented in forms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). We then conduct several numerical simulations using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and empirical studies. We first present analytical solutions for our model to solve for the optimal mix of smoking interventions. Then we simulate a public health policy to achieve 5% smoking prevalence in the US by 2030 using different combinations of real-life interventions. We examine the optimal trajectories, allocative efficiency and annual total cost of smoking cessation and initiation interventions. We find consistent results across all simulations. Our specific example reveals that the most efficient way to reach stated goal is by targeting cessation interventions first, and then gradually shifting resources to initiation interventions over time. While our numerical results are specific to the intervention we selected, our framework can be easily expanded to consider other potential interventions. We discuss the implications of our approach for the formulation of dynamic public health policies.

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Has Smoking Cessation Increased? An Examination of the US Adult Smoking Cessation Rate 1990–2014

Cited by 23 publications

References 10 publications

Are electronic nicotine delivery systems helping cigarette smokers quit? Evidence from a prospective cohort study of U.S. adult smokers, 2015–2016

Are electronic nicotine delivery systems helping cigarette smokers quit? Evidence from a prospective cohort study of U.S. adult smokers, 2015–2016

Prevalence of pancreatic cystic lesions detected by magnetic resonance imaging in the Chinese population

Finding the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking prevalence

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