Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare: Evidence From European Countries

Abstract

This paper shows that differences in fertility across European countries mainly emerge due to fewer women having two children in low-fertility countries. It further suggests that childcare services are an important determinant for the transition to a second child to occur. The theoretical framework we propose suggests that (i) in countries where childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a couple’s probability of having a second child and the woman’s potential wage, whereas (ii) in countries with easy access to childcare, this probability is positively related with the woman’s potential wage. Data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) confirm these implications when estimating a woman’s probability of having a second child as a function of education. This implies that middle-income women are the most affected ones by the lack of access to formal and subsidized childcare.

Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe

“…The EU-SILC provides a harmonized measure of activity status for all countries, which corresponds to selfdefined economic status. 8 We distinguish between working women (working full-time or part-time, whether employed or self-employed) and those who are not working (mainly the economically inactive and the unemployed). As activity status is not timeconstant, a retrospective approach for ages below 28 makes no sense.…”

“…We again mobilize the longitudinal database in order to observe women's activity status 7 We chose women aged 28 at the time of the survey (and not 27) in order to be able to observe potential first childbirths during their entire 27 th year of life. 8 This variable captures the person's own perception of their main activity and differs from the International Labour Organization (ILO) concept to the extent that people's own perception of their main status can differ from the strict definitions used by the ILO (for example, people who consider themselves as students, homemakers, or job searchers while working part-time). before childbirth.…”

“…For more recent cohorts (up to the 1965 cohort) the educational gradient of completed fertility is still found to be negative, albeit diminishing (for example, Andersson et al (2008) for the Nordic countries; Kravdal and Rindfuss (2008) for Norway; Neyer and Hoem (2008) for Sweden; Wood, Neels, and Kil (2014) for progression to first birth in 14 European countries). For cohorts currently of childbearing age, the most recent studies covering more than one country find strong variation between European countries in the association between female education and birth hazard (for example, Klesment et al 2014;d'Albis, Greulich, and Gobbi 2017).…”

Bargaining over Babies: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications

“…However, one limitation of the study is that it is based on vignette-survey experiments that provide information on desired rather than actual fertility. Regarding the specific role of access to child care, D'Albis, Gobbi, and Greulich (2017) provide cross-country evidence showing that differences in fertility across Europe result from fewer women having two children in low-fertility countries, and that child care services are crucial for the transition to a second child to occur. For the case of Germany, Bauernschuster, Hener, and Rainer (2016) find that a large expansion of public child care for young children in Germany substantially increased fertility.…”

The Economics of Fertility: A New Era

“…There is a sizeable recent literature that assesses the relationship of public childcare provision and fertility in greater detail, both empirically and with the aid of quantitative models. 27 For example, D'Albis, Gobbi, and Greulich (2017) stress the importance of access to childcare for the decision to have a second child. Both in a model and in data from EU countries, they show that when childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a women's potential wage and the probability of having a second child.…”