Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis

Mazdiyasni, Omid; Sadegh, Mojtaba; Chiang, Felicia; AghaKouchak, Amir

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-50643-w

Cited by 66 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…While the analysis so far has focused on individual heatwave metric trends, studies indicate that a multivariate approach considering all metrics in a more comprehensive manner may better represent the full impact of heatwave events (Mazdiyasni et al, 2019; Ouarda & Charron, 2018). Quantifying the likelihood of heatwave events occurring with different intensities and durations can have practical applications.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Quantifying the likelihood of heatwave events occurring with different intensities and durations can have practical applications. For example, the optimal design of electrical grids during peak demand must consider both intensity and duration of excessive heat concurrently (Mazdiyasni et al, 2019). We quantified the relationship between heatwave duration and intensity to better understand their synergy, magnitudes, and variability for different time periods.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California

2020

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Research on heatwaves has gained significant impetus over the past decade due to a warming planet and rapid 21st century urbanization. This study examines driving factors influencing heatwave trends and interannual variability across Southern California (SoCal) from 1950–2020. Inland urban areas of Los Angeles county are the most susceptible to heatwaves with strong increasing trends in frequency, duration, and intensity that are closely tied to nighttime warming. Coastal and rural areas are less impacted but show a significant increase in heatwave frequency over the past two decades. Heatwave nighttime temperatures combined with high humidity have been increasing at a rapid rate of ~1°C/decade since the 1980s—elevating heat stress and mortality risk to vulnerable urban communities. The increased nighttime humidity is associated with an anomalous moisture source off the coast of Baja California that has intensified over the past decade and is linked to ocean warming trends and changes in the California current system. Heatwaves are starting earlier and ending later in the year for urban regions. This augments public health risks and sets the stage for more intense fall wildfires by enhancing the drying of fuels. Droughts and heatwaves are strongly linked, particularly in inland urban and rural areas that have a high statistical probability of heatwaves increasing in frequency (42%), duration (26%), and daily mean temperature (2.2%) during severe drought conditions. Better understanding of heatwave climate drivers and underlying physical processes could help with prediction skill, in addition to providing effective data‐driven recommendations for mitigation efforts in SoCal's vulnerable urban regions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California

2020

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“…They are at least partly associated with the rapid changes occurring at the level of the global climate (Reichstein et al ., 2013) and influence the energy, water, and carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere (Rödenbeck et al ., 2020; Xu et al ., 2020). While it is clearly important to understand how plants respond to heatwaves, the dependence of such a response on the heatwave intensity remains poorly recognized (Mazdiyasni et al ., 2019; Xu et al ., 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential responses to two heatwave intensities in a Mediterranean citrus orchard are identified by combining measurements of fluorescence and carbonyl sulfide (COS) and CO₂ uptake

et al. 2021

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Summary The impact of extreme climate episodes such as heatwaves on plants physiological functioning and survival may depend on the event intensity, which requires quantification. We unraveled the distinct impacts of intense (HW) and intermediate (INT) heatwave days on carbon uptake, and the underlying changes in the photosynthetic system, in a Mediterranean citrus orchard using leaf active (pulse amplitude modulation; PAM) and canopy level passive (sun‐induced; SIF) fluorescence measurements, together with CO2, water vapor, and carbonyl sulfide (COS) exchange measurements. Compared to normal (N) days, gross CO2 uptake fluxes (gross primary production, GPP) were significantly reduced during HW days, but only slightly decreased during INT days. By contrast, COS uptake flux and SIFA (at 760 nm) decreased during both HW and INT days, which was reflected in leaf internal CO2 concentrations and in nonphotochemical quenching, respectively. Intense (HW) heatwave conditions also resulted in a substantial decrease in electron transport rates, measured using leaf‐scale fluorescence, and an increase in the fractional energy consumption in photorespiration. Using the combined proxy approach, we demonstrate a differential ecosystem response to different heatwave intensities, which allows the trees to preserve carbon assimilation during INT days but not during HW days.

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“…These limitations have led to a wide range of conclusions regarding heat wave trends across the United States and hinder our ability to understand the dynamic mechanisms responsible for heat waves (Chen & Li, 2017; Grotjahn et al, 2016). Further, while detection and attribution studies have found a slight anthropogenic influence on the severity of heat waves, the human influence on recent U.S. heat waves has not been sufficient to exceed modes of natural variability (Dole et al, 2014; Mazdiyasni et al, 2019; Min et al, 2013; Peterson et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Heat Wave Severity and Coverage Across the United States

Keellings

Moradkhani

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Heat waves have pronounced impacts on human health, ecosystems, and society. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense globally and are likely to intensify further in a warming climate. Across the United States there is a warming trend in average surface temperatures, but concordant increase in heat wave severity appears absent. Limitations in heat waves studies may be responsible for limited detection of a heat wave warming signal. We track daily spatiotemporal evolution of heat waves using geometric concepts and clustering algorithms to investigate how heat manifests on the land surface. We develop a spatial metric combining heat wave frequency, magnitude, duration, and areal extent. We find mixed trends in some individual heat wave characteristics across the United States during 1981-2018. However, exploration of the spatiotemporal evolution of combined heat wave characteristics shows considerable increases during this period and indicates a substantial increase in heat wave hazard across the United States.Plain Language Summary Heat waves are detrimental to human health and the environment and are projected to intensify in the future. However, observed upward trends in heat wave severity have not previously been detected in some regions of the globe, including the United States. This study considers heat waves as spatiotemporal events allowing for detection of significant increases in severity and coverage across the United States. Our study outlines a novel approach that combines geometric concepts with a clustering algorithm to investigate how heat waves evolve. We track heat waves daily across the ground surface and capture the combination of frequency, magnitude, duration, and areal extent using a new index that provides a more complete picture of heat waves. Our results indicate significant increases in heat waves across the United States during the last four decades.

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Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis

Cited by 66 publications

References 57 publications

Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California

Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California

Differential responses to two heatwave intensities in a Mediterranean citrus orchard are identified by combining measurements of fluorescence and carbonyl sulfide (COS) and CO₂ uptake

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Heat Wave Severity and Coverage Across the United States

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Heat wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis

Cited by 66 publications

References 57 publications

Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California

Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California

Differential responses to two heatwave intensities in a Mediterranean citrus orchard are identified by combining measurements of fluorescence and carbonyl sulfide (COS) and CO2 uptake

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Heat Wave Severity and Coverage Across the United States

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Differential responses to two heatwave intensities in a Mediterranean citrus orchard are identified by combining measurements of fluorescence and carbonyl sulfide (COS) and CO₂ uptake