Hedging its bets? Portugal’s diplomatic strategies for a post-Brexit Europe

Abstract

The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union has deeply impacted politics in the continent. While affecting all European countries, the strategic challenges raised by Brexit have been particularly acute for smaller EU members due to their vulnerability and greater dependence on the Union. This article explores the diplomatic strategies smaller EU member states have pursued to meet the challenges stemming from Brexit. Drawing on the theoretical literature on small states it focuses on the case of Portugal, an under-researched country, which, as a core EU member sharing an historical alliance with Britain, is significantly exposed to the effects of Brexit. In an empirically grounded way, the analysis shows that Portugal has been hedging its bets to balance a steady EU commitment with the protection of relevant links with the UK. Like for other smaller EU countries, the new context of uncertainty led to the adoption of more proactive and sophisticated diplomatic strategies. The study provides evidence of the novel political dynamics in Europe triggered by Brexit and highlights the importance of international institutions, such as the EU, for small countries.These results contribute to the literature on contemporary Portuguese foreign policy and small European states' diplomacy.

Portugal’s strategic response to Brexit: enduring Europeanisation?

“…Indeed, rather than adopting a passive or straightforward strategy, Lisbon followed a nuanced approach combining three elements: a clear, yet prudent support for EU unity, active involvement in the definition of the Union's positions vis-à-vis the UK and an exploration of complementary extra-EU channels, such as bilateral contacts with London and broader European coalitions. This coexistence of important, albeit unsurprising, elements of shelter-seeking with more novel and proactive strategies attests to a hedging behaviour that was spurred by the new challenges and uncertainties brought about by the Brexit process (Raimundo and Ferreira-Pereira 2021). Next, Portugal's hedging strategy is described in greater detail by focusing on Lisbon's positioning in the Brexit negotiations and in relation to EU foreign policy developments that occurred during the period under consideration in this article.…”

“…Instead, Lisbon followed an active and versatile approach encompassing cautious support for the reinforcement of the EU's CFSP/CSDP shelter, mixed with the pursuit of other simultaneous options outside the EU framework. These included the activation of the old political-diplomatic alliance with Britain, participation in the France-sponsored European Intervention Initiative (EI2), the promotion of a coalition of small European Atlantic states aimed at counterbalancing the mounting weight of continentalism in Europe, as well as an enduring firm support for the US-led Atlantic Alliance, Portugal's other main shelter in this domain (Raimundo and Ferreira-Pereira 2021).…”

“…By shedding analytical and empirical clarity upon an often neglected country that is a centuries-old ally of Britain and one of the oldest smaller members of the EU, this article makes a contribution to the emerging literature on strategic responses to Brexit from EU countries (e.g. Krotz and Schild 2018;Raimundo and Ferreira-Pereira 2021), as well as to existing studies on small states' diplomacy (e.g. Thorhallsson and Steinsson 2017) and Europeanisation of national foreign policy (e.g.…”

Portugal in the European Union

“…As a game changer, the Brexit process conducive to the withdrawal of the UK from the EU, in January 2021, has opened up a totally novel avenue for research. For this reason, more studies are needed to advance understanding on how Portugal will accommodate the resulting manifold changes not only in its relations with the remaining member states, notably key players like Germany and France; but also in its diplomatic activity towards the UK and US (Raimundo and Ferreira-Pereira, 2021). Moreover, future analyses on to what extent the unfolding of the Brexit will influence the country's self-perception of its role in the EU and the world will be valuable contributions to the field of research.…”

Small EU member states and Brexit: introduction

“…Small European states inside and outside the EU, as a scientific topic, have been the subject of various relevant works (Goetschel 1998;Hanf and Soetendorp 1998;Steinmetz and Wivel 2010;Archer, Bailes, and Wivel 2014). A still very limited number of newer studies dedicated to the implications of Brexit on small European states have casted light on the Brexit strategies of some individual countries, namely Ireland (Rees and O'brennan 2019), Czech Republic (Weiss 2020) and Portugal (Raimundo and Ferreira-Pereira 2021). More theoretically oriented literature on small states has explored the implications of Brexit upon the traditional functions of 'shelter' and 'platform' provided by the full-fledged membership to the EU.…”