High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources and Power Market Formation for Countries in Energy Transition: Assessment via Price Analysis and Energy Forecasting

Abstract

Climate change as a challenge we all are facing, varying degree of economic development as a result of COVID-19, the volatility in energy prices and political as well as other factors, most countries have restructured their electricity markets in order to facilitate the use of green renewable energy. The right energy mix in a period of energy transformation is the best strategy for achieving reduction of carbon emissions. Bulgaria is a special case because it has expanded the use of solar and wind energy exponentially, without conducting an adequate preliminary forecast analysis and formulating a parallel strategy for the development and expansion of the energy storage infrastructure. In this regard, the article is focused on how the power energy market is structured with the increasingly large-scale and global penetration of renewable energy sources as primary energy sources, observing several key factors influencing the energy transition. Due to the cyclical nature of energy production and the necessity for a smooth and efficient transition, a long-term seasonal storage plan should be considered. Furthermore, solar energy production facilities have a greater share of installed power, but wind power facilities generate a roughly equivalent amount of electric energy over the course of a year. One of the aims of this research is to discover an appropriate model for predicting the electricity output of wind and solar facilities located in Bulgaria that can be used to ease the transition process. Based on thorough data analysis of energy production over the past 11 years and 5 months, our findings suggest that a SARIMA model might be appropriate, as it takes into account the seasonal cycles in the production process.

Renewable Energy Share in European Industry: Analysis and Extrapolation of Trends in EU Countries

“…Consequently, the authors categorized potential stimulants for augmenting the proportion of renewable energy utilization in total energy consumption into three primary groups: economic, political, and technological (refer to Figure 2). Economic factors encompass considerations linked to societal income and welfare levels [99], energy price dynamics [100], and the extent of governmental support for renewable or environmentally sustainable energy initiatives [101]. Within the realm of political factors, emphasis is placed on elements associated with climate and energy policies, such as greenhouse gas emission targets, energy efficiency standards, and the proportion of renewables in overall energy consumption [52,74].…”

“…Meanwhile, in the context of variable X 2 , i.e., electricity price for industrial consumers, the impact should be negative on the share of RES in energy consumption. According to theory [100], prices are one of the main cost factors in industry. This should be especially true in countries where electricity is generated from conventional media and where the price is rising rapidly, making renewable energy an economical alternative to conventional sources.…”

Balancing the Water-Carbon Trade-Off: Development of a Bi-Level Source-Grid-Load Synergistic Optimization Model for Multi-Regional Electric Power System

“…This holistic approach stands in contrast to the LoMLoG models developed by , which accurately represented various aspects of the electricity sector but were limited to achieving single-layer objectives [26,27,[40][41][42]. Koeva et al (2023) further expanded the scope by incorporating long-term seasonal storage strategies into electricity market adjustments, highlighting the importance of integrating renewable energy sources into the grid [43]. Despite these advances, a significant gap remains in understanding the interconnected multi-regional electric power system.…”

Role of Renewables in Energy Storage Economic Viability in the Western Balkans

“…Given the current state of the art, energy storage systems and renewable energy sources (RES) have been closely related and considered as key factors in future carbon-free systems. Among the many services provided by energy storage systems to support the RES integration in the power grids, described in detail by [7][8][9], are flexibility and the resolution of RES intermittency. As more renewables are in the grid, more energy storage is needed.…”