High‐resolution climate simulations with COSMO‐CLM over Italy: performance evaluation and climate projections for the 21st century

Abstract

This study presents the results of dynamically downscaled climate simulations over Italy produced with the COSMO-CLM model. Three simulations forced by ERA-Interim Reanalysis were conducted respectively at a spatial resolution of 0.22 ∘ , 0.125 ∘ and 0.0715 ∘ over the period 1979-2011. The results were analysed in terms of 2-m temperature and precipitation with the aim of assessing the model's ability to reproduce these important features of the Italian climate. The results were validated by comparing model output with different independent observational datasets. Values of temperature and precipitation show a general good agreement with observations, with a fair reduction of errors in all seasons as the resolution is increased. Two simulations at a spatial resolution of 0.0715 ∘ , driven by the global model CMCC-CM, were performed over the period 1971-2100, employing the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate projections show a significant warming expected in Italy at the end of the 21st century, along with a general reduction in precipitation, particularly evident in spring and summer.

Simulations of quantitative shift in bio-climatic indices in the viticultural areas of Trentino (Italian Alps) by an open source R package

“…The simulations have been deeply analysed in Bucchignani et al (2015) and -in terms of extreme events -in Zollo et al (2015a), showing a general good agreement with observed data. Furthermore, as explained in Bucchignani et al (2015), the results of these simulations are consistent, in terms of both mean bias and projections, with those obtained from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble data (Giorgi et al, 2009), which represent the 'state-of-the-art' of regional climate simulations over Europe at 0.11°of horizontal resolution.…”

“…The main features of the model and of its setup are reported in Bucchignani et al (2015) and are briefly recalled in Table 1. Simulations were performed over Italy, employing a spatial resolution of 0.0715°(about 8 km).…”

Numerical Simulation of the Period 1971–2100 over the Mediterranean Area with a Regional Model, Scenario SRES-A1B

“…The good capabilities of the model in reproducing PDFs observed in the present work, combined with the finding of several literature works (e.g., [33,37]) confirm that, especially in some complex areas, high-resolution simulations could provide good improvements in the data quality. Indeed, there is no ideal resolution appropriate for every geographical area, since it depends on the climate variability of the context considered.…”

“…Concerning Italy, it is affected by a moderate increase in the northwestern part in DJF, while no significant changes are expected in southern Italy in DJF and in the whole domain in JJA. These results confirm only partially the findings reported in [32], so a deeper analysis at higher resolution over Italy was needed and described in [33].…”

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

“…Mountain ranges block large-scale atmospheric flow and generate orographic rainfall, which contributes to the wet bias. It is worth noting that errors in precipitation observations may contribute to these biases over the mountainous areas, as these errors increase at high altitudes (Bucchignani et al 2016).…”