High resolution inventory and hazard assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in upper Jhelum basin, Kashmir Himalaya, India

Ahmed, Rayees; Ahmad, Syed Towseef; Wani, Gowhar Farooq; Mir, Riyaz Ahmad; Almazroui, Mansour; Jain, Sanjay K.

doi:10.1080/10106049.2022.2038693

Cited by 20 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Among these, four lakes are located in Jammu and Kashmir; however, only one of them, namely Sona-Sar lake, is found in the area under study. Sona-Sar lake was also confirmed as a high-risk Lake (HRL) by Dubey and Goel [44] and a high-hazard glacial lake (HHGL) by Ahmed et al [41]. Dubey and Goel [44] have reported four glacial lakes (Hirubagwan, Krishna-Sar, Gad-Sar, and Har-Nag) as very high-risk lakes (VHRL) in the upper Jhelum basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…A decreasing trend was also observed for the annual precipitation, as depicted in Figure 3. Gangabal lake has been classified as a potentially dangerous lake by various researchers in the past, for example, a high-risk lake by Gupta et al [36], a potentially dangerous lake by Guru et al [74], medium-risk lake by Ahmed et al [41], and important GLOF lakes by Kumar and Goel [42] and Kumar et al [15]. The GLOF susceptibility of Gangabal lake is provided in Section 5.6.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Earlier, glacial lake studies in the former state of Jammu and Kashmir were carried out at different levels, for example, at the international level (glacial lake inventory of HMA) by Ives et al [32], Wang et al [33], and Chen et al [34]; at the national level by the Central Water Commission [35], National Remote Sensing Center Hyderabad [36], Ives et al [32], Fujita et al [37], and Worni et al [38]; and at the basin level by Dar et al [39] and Ahmed et al [40,41]. The Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs) in the area have been identified by seven previous studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

et al. 2022

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Climate warming-induced glacier recession has resulted in the development and rapid expansion of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. The increased melting has enhanced the susceptibility for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the region. The catastrophic failure of potentially dangerous glacial lakes could be detrimental to human life and infrastructure in the adjacent low-lying areas. This study attempts to assess the GLOF hazard of Gangabal lake, located in the Upper Jhelum basin of Kashmir Himalaya, using the combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS, and dam break modeling. The parameters, such as area change, ice thickness, mass balance, and surface velocity of the Harmukh glacier, which feeds Gangabal lake, were also assessed using multitemporal satellite data, GlabTop-2, and the Cosi–Corr model. In the worst-case scenario, 100% volume (73 × 106 m3) of water was considered to be released from the lake with a breach formation time (bf) of 40 min, breach width (bw) of 60 m, and producing peak discharge of 16,601.03 m3/s. Our results reveal that the lake area has increased from 1.42 km2 in 1972 to 1.46 km2 in 1981, 1.58 km2 in 1992, 1.61 km2 in 2001, 1.64 km2 in 2010, and 1.66 km2 in 2020. The lake area experienced 17 ± 2% growth from 1972 to 2020 at an annual rate of 0.005 km2. The feeding glacier (Harmukh) contrarily indicated a significant area loss of 0.7 ± 0.03 km2 from 1990 (3.36 km2) to 2020 (2.9 km2). The glacier has a maximum, minimum, and average depth of 85, 7.3, and 23.46 m, respectively. In contrast, the average velocity was estimated to be 3.2 m/yr with a maximum of 7 m/yr. The results obtained from DEM differencing show an average ice thickness loss of 11.04 ± 4.8 m for Harmukh glacier at the rate of 0.92 ± 0.40 m/yr between 2000 and 2012. Assessment of GLOF propagation in the worst-case scenario (scenario-1) revealed that the maximum flood depth varies between 3.87 and 68 m, the maximum flow velocity between 4 and 75 m/s, and the maximum water surface elevation varies between 1548 and 3536 m. The resultant flood wave in the worst-case scenario will reach the nearest location (Naranaag temple) within 90 min after breach initiation with a maximum discharge of 12,896.52 m3 s−1 and maximum flood depth and velocity of 10.54 m and 10.05 m/s, respectively. After evaluation of GLOF impacts on surrounding areas, the area under each inundated landuse class was estimated through the LULC map generated for both scenarios 1 and 2. In scenario 1, the total potentially inundated area was estimated as 5.3 km2, which is somewhat larger than 3.46 km2 in scenario 2. We suggest a location-specific comprehensive investigation of Gangbal lake and Harmukh glacier by applying the advanced hazard and risk assessment models/methods for better predicting a probable future GLOF event.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

et al. 2022

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“…The automatic extraction process is accompanied with several misclassifications in the delineation of lake boundaries. This problem was corrected with the help of manual correction of the glacial lake polygons, through visual analysis, from the false color composite of Landsat and Sentinel 2A imagery and google earth imagery [2,18,31]. The difference in the automatic demarcation of the lakes is depicted in Fig 3.…”

Section: Glacial Lake Inventorization and Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Glacial Lake Evolution and the Associated GLOF Hazard in Shyok Catchment of Upper Indus Basin

Rather

Ahmed

Bateni

et al. 2023

Preprint

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As glaciers recede in response to global climate change, a significant growth of glacial lakes is being witnessed in the Himalayan region. Owing to their high elevations, rapid growth and mostly unstable dams constituting of loosely consolidated glacial moraine deposits, these lakes pose a significant threat in the form of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). This study focused on studying the evolution of glacial lakes in Shyok catchment of Upper Indus basin, over a period of 30 years (1992 to 2022) and assessing their GLOF hazard levels. The Inventorization and Spatio-temporal change detection of the glacial lakes (A≥0.001 km2) was done using multi-temporal medium and high-resolution satellite imagery from the years 1992, 2002, 2012 and 2022. Besides, we have used Google Earth and Planet imagery, to validate the glacier and glacial lakes outlines. The GLOF hazard level assessment was carried out through a multi-criteria approach using Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP to classify the lakes into very-low, low, medium, high and very-high hazard categories. The results reveal a significant increase in the total number of glacial lakes from 143 in 1992 to 240 in 2022 as well as the total glacial lake area that increased from 8.45 km2 (± 0.02 km2) in 1992 to 13.26 km2 (± 0.04 km2) in 2022. Furthermore, out of 63 glacial lakes (A>0.05 km2) selected for the hazard assessment, 7 lakes were identified as very-high hazard lakes with GLOF susceptibility indices greater than 7.0 while 19 more lakes were classified as High-hazard lakes with GLOF susceptibilities in the range of 0.6 to 0.7. Most of these lakes are proglacial lakes and are close to their mother glaciers. The majority of these hazardous lakes have witnessed a high growth rate, which suggests that the GLOF hazard of these lakes is going to increase further in the future owing to the warming climatic trends. This study will act as a precursor to a more detailed and in-depth GLOF risk assessment of highly hazardous glacial lakes in the region and will help in developing mitigation strategies for any potential disasters in future.

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“…Upper Jhelum Basin is a complex and dynamic geological region that has been shaped by the movement of tectonic plates, the intrusion of magma, and the erosive action of rivers and glaciers. Upper Jhelum Basin is comprised of metamorphic rocks such as gneiss, schist, and quartzite, among others (Ahmed, Ahmad, et al., 2022).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework to Identify Rock Glaciers and Model Mountain Permafrost in the Jhelum Basin, Kashmir Himalaya, India

Remya,

Ghosh,

Agarwal

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Deglaciation has led to the transformation of glaciers into rock glaciers in various mountainous regions worldwide. However, the science of permafrost and rock glaciers remains under‐researched in the Himalayan region. This study presents a detailed inventory, dynamics, and permafrost distribution map for the Jhelum basin in the Kashmir Himalaya. The Permafrost Zonation Map (PZM) is created using a Logistic Regression Model based on topographic and climatic variables. High‐resolution satellite images are used to identify rock glaciers as visual indicators. Active and relic rock glaciers are classified based on surface topography and geomorphology. Results reveal 207 rock glaciers in the Jhelum basin, covering ∼50 km2, with over 100 falling into the active category. The PZM aligns well with the global permafrost zonation index map. Slope, aspect, and elevation of rock glaciers are computed using the ASTER Digital Elevation Model. The average elevations range from 3,700 m to 4,550 m, and the average surface slope ranges from 12° to 26°, with maximum slopes from 25° to 65°. Most rock glaciers are oriented toward the south or southeast. Field investigations confirm that these rock glaciers occur in highly elevated regions with steep slopes. This study provides valuable information on the high areal abundance of permafrost in the Himalayan region and suggests increased risks of thawing permafrost due to climate warming in the future. The findings contribute to the understanding of permafrost and rock glaciers, filling knowledge gaps in the Himalayan context.

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High resolution inventory and hazard assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in upper Jhelum basin, Kashmir Himalaya, India

Cited by 20 publications

References 91 publications

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Understanding Glacial Lake Evolution and the Associated GLOF Hazard in Shyok Catchment of Upper Indus Basin

A Framework to Identify Rock Glaciers and Model Mountain Permafrost in the Jhelum Basin, Kashmir Himalaya, India

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